Koper
vs
Mura
Garuda Lions Prediction: Koper
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.67.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Koper vs Mura overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Koper vs Mura
| Probability | Koper | Draw | Mura |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.5% | 18.8% | 8.7% |
| Market | 59.4% | 22.7% | 17.8% |
| Final | 62.7% | 21.7% | 15.6% |
| Edge | +3.3% | -1.0% | -2.3% |
Why Koper
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Koper below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.3% per unit staked (our 62.7% × 1.60 − 1).
Koper vs Mura match preview
Koper enters this match against Mura with a strong probability of winning at 75%, while Mura's chances stand at just 8%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. Koper's expected goals are significantly higher at 2.46 compared to Mura's 0.73, indicating a pronounced offensive advantage.
In terms of recent form, Koper has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last six matches, while Mura has struggled with four draws and two losses in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record favors Koper, with four wins against Mura's one in their last five encounters. The model suggests a 62% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 48% probability for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Koper and Mura expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
Koper and Mura attack and defence ratings
Koper
Mura
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Koper vs Mura markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Koper | 62.7% | 1.59 | +3.3% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Koper win | 49.5% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Koper | 62.7% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Mura | 15.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.6% |
| No | 55.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Koper win | 49.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 27.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 3-0 | 10.2% |
Koper vs Mura stats
Koper and Mura recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Koper and Mura season so far
Koper record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Mura record
- They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
Koper vs Mura head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Mura | Koper | 1. SNL | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Mura | Koper | 1. SNL | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Koper | Mura | 1. SNL | 3-0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Mura | Koper | 1. SNL | 3-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Koper | Mura | 1. SNL | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Mura | Koper | 1. SNL | 1-3 |
| 2025-03-29 | Koper | Mura | 1. SNL | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-26 | Mura | Koper | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-08 | Mura | Koper | 1. SNL | 1-3 |
| 2024-09-22 | Koper | Mura | 1. SNL | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Koper vs Mura odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.4%, draw 22.7%, away 17.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 4.00 | 5.53 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 3.95 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.58 | 4.10 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 4.00 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 4.28 | 5.45 |
| SBO | 1.51 | 3.53 | 4.55 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .