Radomlje
vs
Celje
Garuda Lions Prediction: Celje
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.22.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Celje is the favourite, not a value bet.
Radomlje vs Celje overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Radomlje vs Celje
| Probability | Radomlje | Draw | Celje |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.3% | 24.3% | 52.4% |
| Market | 18.3% | 21.5% | 60.2% |
| Final | 19.6% | 22.2% | 58.2% |
| Edge | +1.2% | +0.7% | -1.9% |
Why Celje
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (our 58.2% × 1.55 − 1).
Radomlje vs Celje match preview
Radomlje will host Celje in their upcoming 1. SNL fixture. The probabilities suggest a strong advantage for Celje, with a 60% chance of winning compared to Radomlje's 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, with expected goals of 1.14 for Radomlje and 1.73 for Celje. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Radomlje recording four consecutive draws and losses, while Celje has managed a win and three draws in their last five matches.
Historically, Celje has dominated their recent encounters with Radomlje, winning all four of their last meetings. The model indicates a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score in this match. With Radomlje struggling for form and Celje showing resilience, the match could be pivotal for both teams.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Radomlje and Celje expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Radomlje and Celje attack and defence ratings
Radomlje
Celje
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Radomlje vs Celje markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celje | 58.2% | 1.72 | -1.9% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Radomlje | 19.6% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Celje | 58.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% |
| No | 38.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Celje win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 47.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 8.0% |
Radomlje vs Celje stats
Radomlje and Celje recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Radomlje and Celje season so far
Radomlje record
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.9 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celje record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Radomlje vs Celje head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Radomlje | Celje | 1. SNL | 1-3 |
| 2026-02-04 | Celje | Radomlje | 1. SNL | 3-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Radomlje | Celje | 1. SNL | 0-3 |
| 2025-07-27 | Celje | Radomlje | 1. SNL | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Radomlje vs Celje odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.3%, draw 21.5%, away 60.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.20 | 4.20 | 1.48 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| BetVictor | 5.25 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 4.85 | 4.35 | 1.55 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 5.20 | 4.30 | 1.53 |
| Marathonbet | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.47 |
| Pinnacle | 5.21 | 4.50 | 1.53 |
| SBO | 4.52 | 3.76 | 1.47 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .