Maribor
vs
Olimpija Ljubljana
Garuda Lions Prediction: Maribor
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.92.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana
| Probability | Maribor | Draw | Olimpija Ljubljana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.2% | 30.4% | 24.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 45.2% | 30.4% | 24.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Maribor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.92.
Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana match preview
Maribor faces Olimpija Ljubljana in their upcoming 1. SNL match, with Maribor holding a 45% probability of winning, while Olimpija Ljubljana stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Maribor, with a 13% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Maribor will score 1.34, compared to Olimpija Ljubljana's 0.92.
In terms of recent form, Maribor has recorded three wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Olimpija Ljubljana has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss. The head-to-head record over the last four encounters shows Maribor with no wins, three draws, and one loss to Olimpija Ljubljana. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Maribor and Olimpija Ljubljana expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.26
Maribor and Olimpija Ljubljana attack and defence ratings
Maribor
Olimpija Ljubljana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maribor | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maribor | 45.2% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.6% |
| No | 54.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Maribor win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.7% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana stats
Maribor and Olimpija Ljubljana recent form
| Maribor |
DWDWDW |
| Olimpija Ljubljana |
WDLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Maribor and Olimpija Ljubljana season so far
Maribor record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Olimpija Ljubljana record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Maribor | 1. SNL | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Maribor | 1. SNL | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Maribor | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Maribor | 1. SNL | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.