Koper
vs
Maribor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Koper
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this, so it is not a value bet.
Koper vs Maribor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Koper vs Maribor
| Probability | Koper | Draw | Maribor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.9% | 30.1% | 32.0% |
| Market | 35.8% | 27.7% | 36.5% |
| Final | 36.3% | 28.3% | 35.4% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +0.6% | -1.1% |
Why Koper
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (our 36.3% × 2.63 − 1).
Koper vs Maribor match preview
Koper faces Maribor in a closely contested match, with our model assigning a 38% probability of a Koper victory, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 32% likelihood of a Maribor win. The expected goals suggest a narrow contest, with Koper projected at 1.26 and Maribor at 1.14. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Koper, occurring at a 10% probability.
Both teams have shown solid recent form, with Koper recording three wins and a draw in their last five matches, while Maribor has managed two wins and three draws in the same span. In their last five head-to-head encounters, Koper has secured two wins, Maribor has also won twice, and there has been one draw, indicating a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Koper and Maribor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.41
Koper and Maribor attack and defence ratings
Koper
Maribor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Koper vs Maribor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Koper | 36.3% | 2.75 | +0.5% | 2.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Koper | 36.3% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Maribor | 35.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% |
| No | 49.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Koper win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 62.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.3% | |
| 1-0 | 10.1% |
Koper vs Maribor stats
Koper and Maribor recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Koper and Maribor season so far
Koper record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Maribor record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Koper vs Maribor head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Maribor | Koper | 1. SNL | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Koper | Maribor | 1. SNL | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Maribor | Koper | 1. SNL | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Koper | Maribor | 1. SNL | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Maribor | Koper | 1. SNL | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-18 | Koper | Maribor | 1. SNL | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Maribor | Koper | 1. SNL | 4-2 |
| 2024-11-30 | Koper | Maribor | 1. SNL | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Maribor | Koper | 1. SNL | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-19 | Koper | Maribor | 1. SNL | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Koper vs Maribor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 27.7%, away 36.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.48 | 3.28 | 2.44 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.48 | 3.28 | 2.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 3.42 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .