Maribor
vs
Celje
Garuda Lions Prediction: Maribor
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Maribor vs Celje overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Maribor vs Celje
| Probability | Maribor | Draw | Celje |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.7% | 24.4% | 12.9% |
| Market | 42.6% | 26.0% | 31.4% |
| Final | 47.6% | 25.6% | 26.8% |
| Edge | +20.1% | -1.6% | -18.5% |
Why Maribor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Maribor below the model: +20.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Maribor vs Celje match preview
Maribor faces Celje in the 1. SNL on October 18, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 16:00 UTC. According to our model, Maribor has a 43% chance of winning, while Celje's probability stands at 31%, with a 27% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Maribor are 1.56, compared to Celje's 0.76. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Maribor, which has a 14% probability.
In terms of recent form, Maribor has recorded three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while Celje has seen mixed results with two wins and three losses. The head-to-head statistics reveal that in their last five encounters, Maribor has not secured a win, with Celje winning three times and two matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Maribor and Celje expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.49
Maribor and Celje attack and defence ratings
Maribor
Celje
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Maribor vs Celje markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maribor | 47.6% | 2.10 | +20.1% | 2.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Maribor win | 37.4% | 2.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maribor | 47.6% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Celje | 26.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.8% |
| No | 57.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Maribor win | 37.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.3% | |
| Loss | 37.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.9% |
| 2-0 | 13.4% | |
| 1-1 | 11.4% |
Maribor vs Celje stats
Maribor and Celje recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Maribor and Celje season so far
Maribor record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celje record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Maribor vs Celje head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Celje | Maribor | 1. SNL | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Celje | Maribor | 1. SNL | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Maribor | Celje | 1. SNL | 3-3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Celje | Maribor | 1. SNL | 3-0 |
| 2025-07-20 | Maribor | Celje | 1. SNL | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-07 | Maribor | Celje | 1. SNL | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-02 | Maribor | Celje | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-08 | Celje | Maribor | 1. SNL | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-06 | Maribor | Celje | 1. SNL | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-18 | Celje | Maribor | 1. SNL | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Maribor vs Celje odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.3%, draw 26.0%, away 31.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.48 | 2.90 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.60 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.22 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.48 | 2.84 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | 3.69 | 3.02 |
| SBO | 2.09 | 3.14 | 2.66 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .