Celje
vs
Aluminij
Garuda Lions Prediction: Celje
1 – 0 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Celje vs Aluminij overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Celje vs Aluminij
| Probability | Celje | Draw | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.7% | 30.2% | 43.1% |
| Market | 59.9% | 21.9% | 18.2% |
| Final | 51.6% | 24.0% | 24.4% |
| Edge | -33.2% | +8.3% | +24.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Celje vs Aluminij match preview
Celje will face Aluminij in their upcoming 1. SNL match, with Celje holding a 54% probability of winning compared to 23% for both a draw and an Aluminij victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Celje, with an 8% chance of occurring. The expected goals for Celje stand at 1.00, while Aluminij is slightly higher at 1.34, indicating a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Celje has struggled with a record of D-L-L-L-W-L, whereas Aluminij has shown better performance with D-W-D-L-W-W. Historically, Celje has a strong head-to-head record, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Aluminij, who has won 2. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting the blend of probabilities with market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Celje and Aluminij expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
Celje and Aluminij attack and defence ratings
Celje
Aluminij
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Celje vs Aluminij markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celje | 51.6% | 1.94 | -33.2% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.3% | 1.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celje | 51.6% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Aluminij | 24.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.9% |
| No | 52.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Celje win | 10.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.5% | |
| Loss | 73.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-1 | 11.6% | |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
Celje vs Aluminij stats
Celje and Aluminij recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Celje and Aluminij season so far
Celje record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aluminij record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Celje vs Aluminij head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Aluminij | Celje | 1. SNL | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Celje | Aluminij | 1. SNL | 5-0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Aluminij | Celje | 1. SNL | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Celje | Aluminij | 1. SNL | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Aluminij | Celje | 1. SNL | 2-3 |
| 2024-03-30 | Celje | Aluminij | 1. SNL | 2-2 |
| 2024-02-04 | Celje | Aluminij | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
| 2023-12-09 | Aluminij | Celje | 1. SNL | 1-3 |
| 2023-09-27 | Celje | Aluminij | 1. SNL | 1-3 |
| 2023-07-23 | Aluminij | Celje | 1. SNL | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Celje vs Aluminij odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.9%, draw 21.9%, away 18.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.15 | 4.93 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.53 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.15 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.29 | 4.62 |
| SBO | 1.43 | 3.89 | 4.77 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .