Olimpija Ljubljana
vs
Mura
Garuda Lions Prediction: Olimpija Ljubljana
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura
| Probability | Olimpija Ljubljana | Draw | Mura |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.8% | 24.6% | 13.6% |
| Market | 55.0% | 25.3% | 19.7% |
| Final | 56.7% | 25.2% | 18.2% |
| Edge | +6.9% | -0.8% | -6.1% |
Why Olimpija Ljubljana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Olimpija Ljubljana below the model: +6.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura match preview
Olimpija Ljubljana is favored in their upcoming match against Mura, with a 60% probability of winning compared to Mura's 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 13% probability. Olimpija Ljubljana has shown a mixed recent form with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Mura has struggled, recording one win and four losses in the same timeframe.
In terms of expected goals, Olimpija Ljubljana is projected to score 1.79, while Mura is expected to net 0.73. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 46%, and both teams scoring is at 44%. Historically, in their last five encounters, Olimpija Ljubljana has secured three wins, while Mura has one win and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Olimpija Ljubljana and Mura expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.52
Olimpija Ljubljana and Mura attack and defence ratings
Olimpija Ljubljana
Mura
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 56.7% | 1.76 | +6.9% | 1.74 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 56.7% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Mura | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Olimpija Ljubljana win | 36.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 38.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.4% |
| 2-0 | 13.0% | |
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura stats
Olimpija Ljubljana and Mura recent form
| Olimpija Ljubljana |
LWWDWD |
| Mura |
DLDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Olimpija Ljubljana and Mura season so far
Olimpija Ljubljana record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mura record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Mura | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Mura | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 0-0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Mura | 1. SNL | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Mura | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 0-2 |
| 2025-07-19 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Mura | 1. SNL | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-10 | Mura | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-12 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Mura | 1. SNL | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-24 | Mura | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Mura | 1. SNL | 4-0 |
| 2024-05-05 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Mura | 1. SNL | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.0%, draw 25.3%, away 19.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.60 | 4.66 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.75 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.74 | 3.65 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.60 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 3.72 | 5.09 |
| SBO | 1.68 | 3.21 | 3.82 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .