Maribor
vs
Aluminij
2 – 2 Full time
| 12′ | D. Simunic | ||
| 19′ | B. Osuji | ||
| 22′ | I. Tshipamba | ||
| 52′ | P. Petrisko | ||
| 65′ | N. ViherC. Goncalves | ||
| 65′ | B. FetaZ. Repas | ||
| 74′ | P. PetriskoR. Ramsak | ||
| 79′ | J. MlakarL. Zahovic | ||
| 80′ | B. OsujiM. Mladenovic | ||
| 80′ | V. Tezak | ||
| 83′ | Z. JevsenakD. Vizinger | ||
| 88′ | H. SorensenS. Rogina | ||
| 90′ | L. Zahovic |
Maribor vs Aluminij overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Maribor vs Aluminij
| Probability | Maribor | Draw | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.7% | 28.7% | 24.6% |
| Market | 64.8% | 20.6% | 14.6% |
| Final | 60.2% | 22.6% | 17.1% |
| Edge | -18.0% | +8.1% | +9.9% |
Why Maribor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.00.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Maribor and Aluminij expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
Maribor and Aluminij attack and defence ratings
Maribor
Aluminij
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Maribor vs Aluminij: result vs prediction
Maribor 2 – 2 Aluminij
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Maribor vs Aluminij markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maribor | 60.2% | 1.66 | -18.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maribor | 60.2% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Aluminij | 17.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Maribor win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 0-0 | 9.6% |
Maribor vs Aluminij stats
Maribor and Aluminij recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Maribor and Aluminij going into this match
Maribor record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aluminij record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Maribor vs Aluminij head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Aluminij | Maribor | 1. SNL | 0-0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Maribor | Aluminij | 1. SNL | 3-0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Aluminij | Maribor | 1. SNL | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Maribor | Aluminij | 1. SNL | 2-3 |
| 2025-09-19 | Aluminij | Maribor | 1. SNL | 2-3 |
| 2025-03-04 | Maribor | Aluminij | Cup | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-05 | Aluminij | Maribor | 1. SNL | 0-2 |
| 2024-02-11 | Maribor | Aluminij | 1. SNL | 7-0 |
| 2023-10-01 | Aluminij | Maribor | 1. SNL | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-30 | Maribor | Aluminij | 1. SNL | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Maribor vs Aluminij odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.5%, draw 20.5%, away 15.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.38 | 4.45 | 6.38 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.40 | 5.90 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 4.91 | 5.90 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 3.91 | 5.70 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .