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UEFA Europa League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

4 – 0 Full time

14′Mateo BiondicRaul Florucz
20′Nohim Chibani
25′Niv·Yehoshua
30′Darius OlaruDylan Aquino
45′Raul Florucz
45′zahi ahmed
54′Eilel PeretzJoão Victor
58′Miguel Vitor
60′Guilherme Smith
66′Forson AmankwahHamode Kanaan
66′Igor ZlatanovićAdrián Ugarriza
66′Miguel VitorMatan Baltaksa
72′Kamiel Van De Perre
76′guy mizrahiAmir Chaim·Ganah
77′Dylan Aquino
79′Massire SyllaDaniel Tshilanda Kabongo
79′Nohim ChibaniDenzel De Roeve
79′Relebohile MofokengKevin Rodriguez
81′Guilherme Smith

Merkur Spielarena, DusseldorfReferee: Mikola Balakin

Union St. Gilloise 69%
Draw 19%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 12%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

29 Shots 6
15 Shots on target 4
69 Possession % 31
4 Corners 0
6 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 2
4 Saves 11
394 Accurate passes 407

Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUnion St. GilloiseDrawHapoel Beer Sheva
Model69.4%19.8%10.7%
Market68.5%18.8%12.6%
Final68.8%19.1%12.1%
Edge+0.2%+0.2%-0.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Union St. Gilloise

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.77.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Union St. Gill ↓ / Hapoel Beer Sh → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 9% 2 12% 10% 3 9% 7% 4+ 9% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 57%
No goals 6%

Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals

Union St. Gilloise 2.22
Hapoel Beer Sheva 0.77

Total expected goals: 2.99

Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva attack and defence ratings

Union St. Gilloise

Attack 1.63 +63%
Defence 0.61 -39%

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: result vs prediction

Union St. Gilloise 4 – 0 Hapoel Beer Sheva

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Europa League

Before and after this match

Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Union St. Gilloise 68.8% 1.45 +0.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57.5% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score No 51.2% 1.95 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 87.9% 1.14 — —
Handicap -1 Union St. Gilloise win 46.5% 2.15 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Union St. Gilloise68.8%
Draw19.1%
Hapoel Beer Sheva12.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%
Both teams to scoreYes48.8%
No51.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)87.9%
12 (either side)80.9%
X2 (draw or away)31.2%
Handicap -1Union St. Gilloise win46.5%
Push (exactly one goal)23.0%
Loss30.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.4%
1-010.3%
2-19.6%

Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva stats

Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva recent form

newest first
Union St. Gilloise WDDWWW
Hapoel Beer Sheva WLWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 68.5%, draw 18.8%, away 12.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.39 5.27 8.20
Bet365 1.40 5.00 7.00
BetVictor 1.36 5.00 7.50
Betano 1.42 5.10 8.00
Betfair 1.36 5.00 7.50
Dafabet 1.41 5.20 7.40
Marathonbet 1.37 5.20 8.10
Pinnacle 1.41 5.04 7.66
SBO 1.28 4.79 6.47
William Hill 1.36 4.80 7.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.38 ▲ +0.03
X 5.02 ▼ -0.28
2 7.50 ▼ -1.00

12 snapshots recorded, from .