Hapoel Beer Sheva
vs
Hapoel Katamon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hapoel Beer Sheva
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon
| Probability | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Draw | Hapoel Katamon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.2% | 24.8% | 25.1% |
| Market | 69.2% | 19.0% | 11.8% |
| Final | 64.5% | 20.4% | 15.1% |
| Edge | -19.1% | +5.8% | +13.3% |
Why Hapoel Beer Sheva
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon match preview
Hapoel Beer Sheva enters this match with a 54% probability of winning, while Hapoel Katamon has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.98 for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.21 for Hapoel Katamon. Recent form shows Hapoel Beer Sheva with two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Hapoel Katamon has one win, two draws, and two losses.
In terms of goals, there is a 62% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a probability of 61%. The head-to-head record favors Hapoel Beer Sheva, who has won both of their last encounters against Hapoel Katamon.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Katamon expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Katamon attack and defence ratings
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Katamon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 64.5% | 1.55 | -19.1% | 1.39 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 64.5% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| Hapoel Katamon | 15.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% |
| No | 38.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 49.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon stats
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Katamon recent form
| Hapoel Beer Sheva |
LWWDWL |
| Hapoel Katamon |
LWDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Katamon season so far
Hapoel Beer Sheva record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hapoel Katamon record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Hapoel Katamon | State Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-31 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Hapoel Katamon | Ligat Ha'al | 4-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Hapoel Katamon | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Ligat Ha'al | 1-5 |
| 2025-01-19 | Hapoel Katamon | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Ligat Ha'al | 0-2 |
| 2024-10-06 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Hapoel Katamon | Ligat Ha'al | 3-1 |
| 2024-01-20 | Hapoel Katamon | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Ligat Ha'al | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Hapoel Katamon | Ligat Ha'al | 3-0 |
| 2023-04-22 | Hapoel Katamon | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Ligat Ha'al | 1-2 |
| 2023-03-18 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Hapoel Katamon | Ligat Ha'al | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-11 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Hapoel Katamon | Ligat Ha'al | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.9%, draw 18.9%, away 12.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 4.85 | 7.85 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.39 | 4.55 | 7.10 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.35 | 4.50 | 7.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.33 | 4.85 | 7.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30 | 5.24 | 8.57 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .