Beitar Jerusalem
vs
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Garuda Lions Prediction: Maccabi Tel Aviv
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
| Probability | Beitar Jerusalem | Draw | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.1% | 24.8% | 45.1% |
| Market | 32.1% | 24.8% | 43.1% |
| Final | 31.6% | 24.8% | 43.6% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +0.0% | +2.0% |
Why Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.45.
- The market prices Maccabi Tel Aviv below the model: +2.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv match preview
Beitar Jerusalem faces Maccabi Tel Aviv in a Ligat Ha'al clash with both teams showing contrasting recent forms. Beitar Jerusalem has recorded three wins followed by a loss and another defeat, while Maccabi Tel Aviv remains strong with four wins and two draws in their last six matches. Our model assigns a 30% probability of a Beitar Jerusalem victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 45% likelihood of a Maccabi Tel Aviv win.
The expected goals for Beitar Jerusalem stand at 1.45, compared to Maccabi Tel Aviv's 1.81. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% likelihood that both teams will score in this encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Beitar Jerusalem and Maccabi Tel Aviv expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
Beitar Jerusalem and Maccabi Tel Aviv attack and defence ratings
Beitar Jerusalem
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 43.6% | 2.29 | +2.0% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beitar Jerusalem | 31.6% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | 43.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% |
| No | 35.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 54.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.3% |
Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv stats
Beitar Jerusalem and Maccabi Tel Aviv recent form
| Beitar Jerusalem |
WWWWLL |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv |
DWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Beitar Jerusalem and Maccabi Tel Aviv season so far
Beitar Jerusalem record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Maccabi Tel Aviv record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Beitar Jerusalem | Ligat Ha'al | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Beitar Jerusalem | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 4-2 |
| 2026-02-16 | Beitar Jerusalem | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Beitar Jerusalem | Ligat Ha'al | 2-6 |
| 2025-05-24 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Beitar Jerusalem | Ligat Ha'al | 5-0 |
| 2025-04-21 | Beitar Jerusalem | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 3-1 |
| 2025-02-03 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Beitar Jerusalem | Ligat Ha'al | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-28 | Beitar Jerusalem | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-10 | Beitar Jerusalem | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-27 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Beitar Jerusalem | Ligat Ha'al | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.1%, draw 24.8%, away 43.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.68 | 2.15 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.90 | 3.68 | 2.13 |
| Pinnacle | 2.98 | 3.84 | 2.12 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .