Union St. Gilloise
vs
Cercle Brugge
Garuda Lions Prediction: Union St. Gilloise
3 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.34 vs 0.75.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge
| Probability | Union St. Gilloise | Draw | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 85.2% | 10.2% | 4.5% |
| Market | 71.3% | 17.2% | 11.4% |
| Final | 74.8% | 15.5% | 9.7% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -1.8% | -1.7% |
Why Union St. Gilloise
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.34 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Union St. Gilloise below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.5% per unit staked (our 74.8% × 1.33 − 1).
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge match preview
Union St. Gilloise enters the match against Cercle Brugge with a strong probability of winning at 74%, while Cercle Brugge's chances sit at 10%. The expected goals for Union St. Gilloise are notably high at 3.08, compared to just 0.80 for Cercle Brugge. Recent form shows Union St. Gilloise performing well, with three consecutive wins, while Cercle Brugge has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 3-0, occurring with a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 74% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals scored, and both teams are expected to score in 53% of the scenarios. In their last two encounters, Union St. Gilloise has secured one win and one draw against Cercle Brugge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.10
Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge attack and defence ratings
Union St. Gilloise
Cercle Brugge
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 74.8% | 1.34 | +3.5% | 1.33 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 74.8% |
| Draw | 15.5% | |
| Cercle Brugge | 9.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% |
| No | 48.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 25.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win | 69.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.8% | |
| Loss | 14.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 10.4% |
| 2-0 | 9.3% | |
| 4-0 | 8.6% |
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge stats
Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge recent form
| Union St. Gilloise |
WWDDWW |
| Cercle Brugge |
WLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge season so far
Union St. Gilloise record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.7 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Cercle Brugge record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | Cercle Brugge | Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Union St. Gilloise | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 71.3%, draw 17.2%, away 11.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 5.70 | 8.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.25 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.33 | 5.60 | 8.25 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.32 | 5.80 | 8.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30 | 5.86 | 8.43 |
| SBO | 1.28 | 4.84 | 6.57 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .