SK Beveren
vs
Union St. Gilloise
Garuda Lions Prediction: Union St. Gilloise
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.30.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Union St. Gilloise is the favourite, not a value bet.
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise overview
Garuda Lions analysis: SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise
| Probability | SK Beveren | Draw | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.6% | 18.7% | 64.7% |
| Market | 16.2% | 21.1% | 62.7% |
| Final | 16.3% | 20.5% | 63.2% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.6% | +0.5% |
Why Union St. Gilloise
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (our 63.2% × 1.53 − 1).
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise match preview
SK Beveren faces Union St. Gilloise in the Jupiler Pro League, with kickoff set for October 31, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for this match are SK Beveren at 15%, a draw at 19%, and Union St. Gilloise at 66%. The expected goals are 1.12 for SK Beveren and 2.46 for Union St. Gilloise, suggesting a strong offensive performance from the visitors.
Recent form indicates that SK Beveren has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Union St. Gilloise has been in better shape with four wins and one draw in the same period. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.89
SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise attack and defence ratings
SK Beveren
Union St. Gilloise
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 63.2% | 1.58 | +0.5% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.7% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win | 44.5% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SK Beveren | 16.3% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Union St. Gilloise | 63.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% |
| No | 32.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win | 44.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 35.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-3 | 7.7% | |
| 1-1 | 7.5% |
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise stats
SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise recent form
| SK Beveren |
DWLLWW |
| Union St. Gilloise |
WWWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise season so far
SK Beveren record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Union St. Gilloise record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.2%, draw 21.1%, away 62.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.95 | 4.62 | 1.51 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 4.33 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 5.80 | 4.40 | 1.53 |
| Marathonbet | 5.80 | 4.50 | 1.47 |
| Pinnacle | 5.78 | 4.61 | 1.50 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .