Standard Liege
vs
Kortrijk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Standard Liege
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.83.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Standard Liege vs Kortrijk
| Probability | Standard Liege | Draw | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.7% | 21.5% | 12.8% |
| Market | 54.0% | 24.1% | 21.9% |
| Final | 56.9% | 23.4% | 19.6% |
| Edge | +2.9% | -0.6% | -2.3% |
Why Standard Liege
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Standard Liege below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.2% per unit staked (our 56.9% × 1.76 − 1).
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk match preview
Standard Liege faces Kortrijk in the Jupiler Pro League with a strong probability of victory at 68%, while a draw stands at 21% and Kortrijk at 12%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 12% likelihood. Standard Liege has a higher expected goals tally of 2.15 compared to Kortrijk's 0.79, indicating a significant offensive advantage.
In terms of recent form, Standard Liege has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Kortrijk has struggled with one win, one draw, and four losses. The probabilities suggest a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring, reflecting a potentially dynamic match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Standard Liege and Kortrijk expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Standard Liege and Kortrijk attack and defence ratings
Standard Liege
Kortrijk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Standard Liege | 56.9% | 1.76 | +2.9% | 1.76 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Standard Liege win | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Standard Liege | 56.9% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Kortrijk | 19.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% |
| No | 49.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Standard Liege win | 42.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 34.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.8% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | |
| 1-1 | 10.3% |
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk stats
Standard Liege and Kortrijk recent form
| Standard Liege |
LWLLLW |
| Kortrijk |
LDWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Standard Liege and Kortrijk season so far
Standard Liege record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Kortrijk record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They average 0.5 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.0%, draw 24.1%, away 21.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.98 | 4.36 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.95 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 3.88 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 3.99 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .