St. Truiden
vs
OH Leuven
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Truiden
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.19.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — St. Truiden is the favourite, not a value bet.
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven
| Probability | St. Truiden | Draw | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.5% | 22.9% | 20.6% |
| Market | 58.6% | 22.4% | 19.0% |
| Final | 58.1% | 22.5% | 19.4% |
| Edge | -0.5% | +0.1% | +0.4% |
Why St. Truiden
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (our 58.1% × 1.63 − 1).
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven match preview
St. Truiden enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 58%, while OH Leuven stands at 19%. The expected goals for St. Truiden are notably higher at 2.04 compared to OH Leuven's 1.12, indicating a potential advantage in offensive performance. Recent form shows St. Truiden has won three of their last six matches, while OH Leuven has drawn three of their last five.
In terms of scoring, our model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1, with a 10% probability. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score in 59% of scenarios. Historically, St. Truiden has dominated their recent encounters with two wins against OH Leuven, who have yet to secure a victory in their last two meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
St. Truiden and OH Leuven expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
St. Truiden and OH Leuven attack and defence ratings
St. Truiden
OH Leuven
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Zulte Waregem v Club Brugge KV — match page
- KV Mechelen vs Genk — team news & stats
- Standard Liege vs Kortrijk — team news & stats
- Anderlecht vs KVC Westerlo
- SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise — team news & stats
- Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp
- Lommel United v Gent — match page
- Charleroi v RAAL La Louvière — match page
Before and after this match
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Truiden | 58.1% | 1.72 | -0.5% | 1.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Truiden | 58.1% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| OH Leuven | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% |
| No | 38.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Truiden win | 34.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 43.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven stats
St. Truiden and OH Leuven recent form
| St. Truiden |
LWWWLL |
| OH Leuven |
DWDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
St. Truiden and OH Leuven season so far
St. Truiden record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
OH Leuven record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | St. Truiden | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-23 | OH Leuven | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.6%, draw 22.4%, away 19.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 4.26 | 5.02 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.25 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.59 | 4.15 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 4.24 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.75 |