OH Leuven
vs
Lommel United
Garuda Lions Prediction: OH Leuven
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — OH Leuven is the favourite, not a value bet.
OH Leuven vs Lommel United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: OH Leuven vs Lommel United
| Probability | OH Leuven | Draw | Lommel United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.0% | 30.0% | 37.9% |
| Market | 49.2% | 24.9% | 25.9% |
| Final | 44.9% | 26.2% | 28.9% |
| Edge | -4.3% | +1.3% | +3.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.4% per unit staked (our 44.9% × 1.95 − 1).
OH Leuven vs Lommel United match preview
In the upcoming match between OH Leuven and Lommel United, the probabilities indicate a slight edge for OH Leuven at 45%, while Lommel United stands at 29%, with a draw estimated at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of OH Leuven, occurring with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for OH Leuven are 1.15, compared to Lommel United's 1.27, suggesting a closely contested match.
Recent form shows OH Leuven with a record of W-D-W-D-L-L, while Lommel United has L-W-W-D-L-L. Both teams have a 51% chance of scoring, and there is a 44% probability of more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match. The confidence grade for this forecast is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
OH Leuven and Lommel United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.43
OH Leuven and Lommel United attack and defence ratings
OH Leuven
Lommel United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
OH Leuven vs Lommel United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | OH Leuven | 44.9% | 2.23 | -4.3% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | OH Leuven | 44.9% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Lommel United | 28.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% |
| No | 49.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | OH Leuven win | 13.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 68.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.1% | |
| 0-1 | 10.0% |
OH Leuven vs Lommel United stats
OH Leuven and Lommel United recent form
| OH Leuven |
WDWDLL |
| Lommel United |
LWWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
OH Leuven and Lommel United season so far
OH Leuven record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lommel United record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
OH Leuven vs Lommel United head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
OH Leuven vs Lommel United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.2%, draw 24.9%, away 25.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.85 | 3.64 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.80 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.54 |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | 3.87 | 3.76 |
| SBO | 1.86 | 3.28 | 3.26 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .