St. Truiden
vs
Lommel United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lommel United
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
St. Truiden vs Lommel United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St. Truiden vs Lommel United
| Probability | St. Truiden | Draw | Lommel United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.2% | 27.5% | 42.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 30.2% | 27.5% | 42.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Lommel United
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
St. Truiden vs Lommel United match preview
St. Truiden faces Lommel United in the Belgium Cup with a kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, St. Truiden has a 30% chance of winning, while Lommel United is favored at 42%, with a 27% probability of a draw. The expected goals for St. Truiden stand at 1.26, compared to Lommel United's 1.53. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%.
In terms of recent form, St. Truiden has struggled with three losses in their last five matches, alongside two wins. Lommel United, on the other hand, has shown more resilience with three wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five games. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 53%, and both teams scoring is projected at 57%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
St. Truiden and Lommel United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
St. Truiden and Lommel United attack and defence ratings
St. Truiden
Lommel United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
St. Truiden vs Lommel United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lommel United | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Truiden | 30.2% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Lommel United | 42.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% |
| No | 42.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lommel United win | 21.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 57.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 0-1 | 8.2% |
St. Truiden vs Lommel United stats
St. Truiden and Lommel United recent form
| St. Truiden |
LLLWLW |
| Lommel United |
WWDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
St. Truiden vs Lommel United head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | St. Truiden | Lommel United | Jupiler Pro League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.