Standard Liege
vs
Dender
Garuda Lions Prediction: Standard Liege
1 – 0 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Standard Liege vs Dender overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Standard Liege vs Dender
| Probability | Standard Liege | Draw | Dender |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.3% | 28.5% | 50.2% |
| Market | 54.2% | 25.1% | 20.7% |
| Final | 46.0% | 26.0% | 28.1% |
| Edge | -32.9% | +3.4% | +29.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Standard Liege vs Dender match preview
Standard Liege faces Dender in the Belgium Cup with a probability of 46% for a home victory, while Dender has a 28% chance of winning and a draw stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 7% likelihood. Expected goals show Standard Liege at 0.90 and Dender at 1.50, indicating a potentially challenging match for the home side.
Recent form highlights a stark contrast, as Standard Liege has recorded three losses followed by two wins, while Dender is on a six-match winning streak. In their last eight encounters, Standard Liege has secured four wins, Dender has one win, and there have been three draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Standard Liege and Dender expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Standard Liege and Dender attack and defence ratings
Standard Liege
Dender
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 32 fixtures
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- Sporting Hasselt v Cercle Brugge — match page
- OH Leuven vs Francs Borains
- Albert Quévy-Mons v Charleroi — match page
- Heist vs Antwerp — team news & stats
- Club Brugge KV vs Lokeren-Temse
- Zulte Waregem v Seraing United — match page
Before and after this match
Standard Liege vs Dender markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Standard Liege | 46.0% | 2.18 | -32.9% | 1.74 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Standard Liege | 46.0% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Dender | 28.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.3% |
| No | 52.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Standard Liege win | 7.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.8% | |
| Loss | 78.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 12.4% | |
| 0-0 | 10.3% |
Standard Liege vs Dender stats
Standard Liege and Dender recent form
| Standard Liege |
LLLWWW |
| Dender |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Standard Liege vs Dender head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | Dender | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-02 | Dender | Standard Liege | Belgium Cup | 3-2 |
| 2025-08-02 | Standard Liege | Dender | Jupiler Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Standard Liege | Dender | Jupiler Pro League | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Dender | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-26 | Standard Liege | Dender | Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-13 | Dender | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League | 0-2 |
| 2022-11-08 | Dender | Standard Liege | Cup | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Standard Liege vs Dender odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.2%, draw 25.1%, away 20.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 3.62 | 4.64 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.74 | 4.10 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 3.62 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 3.43 | 4.39 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .