Jupiler Pro League · 2026-10-11T11:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 8

Standard Liege vs Charleroi

0 – 1 Full time

36′			I. Hautekiet
45′			A. Boukamir
58′			C. Keita
65′			B. NgueneS. Drammeh
65′			C. NielsenA. Zeqiri
71′			P. PfluckeT. Rowe
77′			A. BoukamirI. Cisse
77′			F. MbembaG. Nawata
77′			D. EckertB. Nsimba
84′			R. TouzgharR. Fosso
84′			A. TrouilletM. Ilaimaharitra
86′			J. RomsaasM. Sow
90′			G. Mortensen

Maurice Dufrasnestadion, LiegeReferee: Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium

Standard Liege

33%

Draw

27%

Charleroi

41%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

16	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	4
45	Possession %	55
6	Corners	8
17	Fouls	8
1	Offsides	2
3	Saves	2
332	Accurate passes	406

Standard Liege vs Charleroi overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Standard Liege vs Charleroi

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Standard Liege	Draw	Charleroi
Model	28.4%	26.0%	45.6%
Market	33.9%	27.2%	38.9%
Final	32.5%	26.9%	40.5%
Edge	-1.4%	-0.3%	+1.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Charleroi

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.30.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

81%

3+ goals

57%

No goals

Standard Liege and Charleroi expected goals

Standard Liege

1.30

Charleroi

1.69

Total expected goals: 2.99

Standard Liege and Charleroi attack and defence ratings

Standard Liege

Attack

1.17 +17%

Defence

1.07 +7%

Charleroi

Attack

1.26 +26%

Defence

0.75 -25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Standard Liege vs Charleroi: result vs prediction

Standard Liege 0 – 1 Charleroi

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Jupiler Pro League

SK Beveren vs Lommel United — team news & stats · 2026-10-09
Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht · 2026-10-10
RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV · 2026-10-10
Zulte Waregem vs Gent · 2026-10-10
Genk v Kortrijk — match page · 2026-10-10
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
KVC Westerlo v Antwerp — match page · 2026-10-11
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden — team news & stats · 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

Standard Liege, previous: Gent – Standard Liege, 2026-09-18
Standard Liege, next: Standard Liege v Dender analysis
Charleroi, previous: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge: odds and pick
Charleroi, next: Albert Quévy-Mons vs Charleroi prediction

Standard Liege vs Charleroi markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Charleroi	40.5%	2.47	+1.7%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57.5%	1.74	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	60.4%	1.65	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.1%	1.37	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	54.4%	1.84	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Standard Liege	32.5%
	Draw	26.9%
	Charleroi	40.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57.5%
	Under 2.5	42.5%
Both teams to score	Yes	60.4%
	No	39.6%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	59.5%
	12 (either side)	73.1%
	X2 (draw or away)	67.5%
Handicap -1	Charleroi win	24.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.9%
	Loss	54.4%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	12.1%
	1-2	9.3%
	0-1	7.4%

Standard Liege vs Charleroi stats

Standard Liege and Charleroi recent form

newest first

Standard Liege	LLWWWD
Charleroi	WWLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Standard Liege and Charleroi going into this match

league record before kick-off

Standard Liege record

They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Charleroi record

They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Standard Liege vs Charleroi head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Standard Liege wins 3Draws 4Charleroi wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-23	Standard Liege	Charleroi	Jupiler Pro League	0-2
2026-04-18	Charleroi	Standard Liege	Jupiler Pro League	1-2
2026-01-18	Charleroi	Standard Liege	Jupiler Pro League	2-0
2025-10-31	Standard Liege	Charleroi	Jupiler Pro League	3-1
2025-05-04	Standard Liege	Charleroi	Jupiler Pro League	0-1
2025-04-06	Charleroi	Standard Liege	Jupiler Pro League	1-0
2024-11-30	Charleroi	Standard Liege	Jupiler Pro League	1-1
2024-10-20	Standard Liege	Charleroi	Jupiler Pro League	2-1
2023-12-16	Standard Liege	Charleroi	Jupiler Pro League	0-0
2023-08-13	Charleroi	Standard Liege	Jupiler Pro League	1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Standard Liege vs Charleroi odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.9%, draw 27.2%, away 38.9%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.82	3.57	2.42
Bet365	2.62	3.30	2.40
BetVictor	2.75	3.50	2.40
Betano	2.85	3.40	2.47
Betfair	2.63	3.30	2.30
Dafabet	2.80	3.45	2.47
Marathonbet	2.75	3.48	2.36
Pinnacle	2.89	3.46	2.52
SBO	2.64	3.15	2.31
William Hill	2.75	3.25	2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.75 ▼ -0.12

X 3.42 ▲ +0.05

2 2.40 ▲ +0.10

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-05T08:10:01Z.