Standard Liege
vs
Charleroi
Garuda Lions Prediction: Charleroi
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Standard Liege vs Charleroi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Standard Liege vs Charleroi
| Probability | Standard Liege | Draw | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.7% | 26.1% | 45.2% |
| Market | 32.2% | 27.4% | 40.4% |
| Final | 31.3% | 27.0% | 41.6% |
| Edge | -3.5% | -1.3% | +4.8% |
Why Charleroi
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Charleroi below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Standard Liege vs Charleroi match preview
In the upcoming Jupiler Pro League match, Standard Liege faces Charleroi, with model probabilities indicating a 29% chance for a Standard Liege win, a 26% chance for a draw, and a 45% likelihood for a Charleroi victory. The expected goals for Standard Liege stand at 1.31, while Charleroi is projected to score 1.68, suggesting a competitive encounter.
Recent form shows Standard Liege with two losses followed by three wins and a draw, while Charleroi has been in strong form, winning five of their last six matches. The last four head-to-head encounters reveal a balanced rivalry, with both teams claiming two victories each. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Charleroi, with a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Standard Liege and Charleroi expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Standard Liege and Charleroi attack and defence ratings
Standard Liege
Charleroi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Standard Liege vs Charleroi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleroi | 41.6% | 2.40 | +4.8% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Standard Liege | 31.3% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Charleroi | 41.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% |
| No | 39.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Charleroi win | 24.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 7.3% |
Standard Liege vs Charleroi stats
Standard Liege and Charleroi recent form
| Standard Liege |
LLWWWD |
| Charleroi |
WWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Standard Liege and Charleroi season so far
Standard Liege record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Charleroi record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Standard Liege vs Charleroi head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Standard Liege | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Charleroi | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-18 | Charleroi | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Standard Liege | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Standard Liege vs Charleroi odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.2%, draw 27.4%, away 40.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.91 | 3.57 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.83 | 3.48 | 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.95 | 3.43 | 2.38 |
| SBO | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.18 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .