Jupiler Pro League
·
Full time
·Matchday 7
Charleroi
vs
Cercle Brugge
3 – 2 Full time
| 15′ | Freddy Mbemba | ||
| 25′ | Aurelien Scheidler | ||
| 30′ | Dante Vanzeir | ||
| 34′ | Erick NunesViggo Martens | ||
| 58′ | Dante VanzeirSteve Ngoura | ||
| 58′ | Lazare AmaniBabatunde Jimoh Akinsola | ||
| 61′ | Aurelien Scheidler | ||
| 62′ | Patrick PflückeGaku Nawata | ||
| 73′ | Steve Ngoura | ||
| 74′ | Mardochée NzitaTriston Rowe | ||
| 74′ | Amine BoukamirIsaac Cisse | ||
| 81′ | Aurelien ScheidlerMassamba Sow | ||
| 81′ | Freddy MbembaAdama Bojang | ||
| 81′ | Lukas MondeleHannes Van Der Bruggen | ||
| 81′ | Krys-Anthony Madou KouassiLucas Michal | ||
| 82′ | Ibrahim Diakite | ||
| 82′ | Yassine Khalifi | ||
| 90′ | Mario Kohnen | ||
| 90′ | Aiham Ousou |
Charleroi
60%
Draw
22%
Cercle Brugge
18%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 4 |
| 488 | Accurate passes | 245 |
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge
| Probability | Charleroi | Draw | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.6% | 19.8% | 11.6% |
| Market | 57.0% | 23.4% | 19.7% |
| Final | 59.9% | 22.5% | 17.7% |
| Edge | +11.7% | -3.6% | -8.1% |
Why Charleroi
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Charleroi below the model: +11.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
82%
3+ goals
60%
No goals
5%
Charleroi and Cercle Brugge expected goals
Charleroi
2.26
Cercle Brugge
0.84
Total expected goals: 3.11
Charleroi and Cercle Brugge attack and defence ratings
Charleroi
Attack
1.17 +17%
Defence
0.67 -33%
Cercle Brugge
Attack
1.01 +1%
Defence
1.30 +30%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge: result vs prediction
Charleroi 3 – 2 Cercle Brugge
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Gent v Standard Liege — match page
- OH Leuven vs RAAL La Louvière — team news & stats
- Lommel United v KV Mechelen — match page
- Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem — team news & stats
- Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise
- St. Truiden v KVC Westerlo — match page
- Club Brugge KV vs Genk — team news & stats
- Kortrijk vs SK Beveren
Before and after this match
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleroi | 59.9% | 1.67 | +11.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.3% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Charleroi win | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleroi | 59.9% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Cercle Brugge | 17.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Charleroi win | 46.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 31.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-1 | 9.4% |
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge stats
Charleroi and Cercle Brugge recent form
| Charleroi |
WLWWWW |
| Cercle Brugge |
DLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Charleroi and Cercle Brugge going into this match
Charleroi record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Cercle Brugge record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Charleroi wins
2Draws
4Cercle Brugge wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | 3-4 |
| 2025-09-14 | Cercle Brugge | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 2-3 |
| 2025-01-25 | Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Cercle Brugge | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-09 | Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | 0-0 |
| 2023-08-05 | Cercle Brugge | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 2-0 |
| 2023-01-15 | Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | 2-1 |
| 2022-10-21 | Cercle Brugge | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 4-1 |
| 2022-03-19 | Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | 5-0 |
| 2021-11-20 | Cercle Brugge | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.7%, draw 23.5%, away 19.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 4.16 | 4.88 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.70 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 4.05 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 4.32 | 4.91 |
| SBO | 1.73 | 3.46 | 3.57 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.65 ▼ -0.30
X
4.03 ▲ +0.16
2
4.78 ▲ +1.16
14 snapshots recorded, from .