Garuda Lions
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Jupiler Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 7

Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise

0 – 2 Full time

18′Michael Frey
18′Adem Zorgane
25′Arthur Vermeeren
51′Mateo Biondic
58′Xander DierckxIbrahim Salah
64′Relebohile MofokengKevin Rodriguez
64′Louis PatrisDenzel De Roeve
66′Modibo FofanaSnayder Porozo
66′Christopher ScottCarlos Mejia
67′Bahmed Deuff
69′Bahmed Deuff
75′Snayder Porozo
75′Hervé Koffi
75′Besfort ZeneliRob Schoofs
75′Michael FreyLuis Narh
76′Luca SchelfhoutMauricio Benítez
78′Denzel De Roeve
83′Guilherme SmithIlan Hurtevent
83′Mateo BiondicRaul Florucz

Bosuilstadion, AntwerpReferee: Jan Boterberg

Antwerp 17%
Draw 21%
Union St. Gilloise 62%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 21
1 Shots on target 11
49 Possession % 51
1 Corners 7
16 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1
8 Saves 1
340 Accurate passes 354

Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAntwerpDrawUnion St. Gilloise
Model12.1%15.6%72.3%
Market18.2%22.6%59.1%
Final16.7%20.9%62.4%
Edge-6.1%-7.0%+13.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Union St. Gilloise

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.96 vs 1.21.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Union St. Gilloise below the model: +13.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Antwerp ↓ / Union St. Gill → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 10% 1 8% 8% 12% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 79%
No goals 2%

Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise expected goals

Antwerp 1.21
Union St. Gilloise 2.96

Total expected goals: 4.18

Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise attack and defence ratings

Antwerp

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.32 +32%

Union St. Gilloise

Attack 1.81 +81%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise: result vs prediction

Antwerp 0 – 2 Union St. Gilloise

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Jupiler Pro League

Before and after this match

Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Union St. Gilloise 62.4% 1.60 +13.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 78.7% 1.27 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.2% 1.49 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 83.3% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Union St. Gilloise win 53.5% 1.87 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Antwerp16.7%
Draw20.9%
Union St. Gilloise62.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578.7%
Under 2.521.3%
Both teams to scoreYes67.2%
No32.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)37.6%
12 (either side)79.1%
X2 (draw or away)83.3%
Handicap -1Union St. Gilloise win53.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.8%
Loss27.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.2%
1-38.1%
0-26.7%

Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise stats

Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise recent form

newest first
Antwerp LLLDWW
Union St. Gilloise WWWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise going into this match

league record before kick-off

Antwerp record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

Union St. Gilloise record

  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.7 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Antwerp wins 1Draws 7Union St. Gilloise wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-21Union St. GilloiseAntwerpJupiler Pro League2-1
2025-07-25AntwerpUnion St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League1-1
2025-05-17AntwerpUnion St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League0-4
2025-03-29Union St. GilloiseAntwerpJupiler Pro League5-1
2025-01-08AntwerpUnion St. GilloiseBelgium Cup5-1
2024-12-01Union St. GilloiseAntwerpJupiler Pro League2-1
2024-09-15AntwerpUnion St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League2-0
2024-05-09Union St. GilloiseAntwerpCup1-0
2024-04-28Union St. GilloiseAntwerpJupiler Pro League4-1
2024-04-25AntwerpUnion St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 18.2%, draw 22.6%, away 59.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.23 4.31 1.60
Bet365 4.75 4.10 1.55
BetVictor 5.25 4.10 1.57
Betano 5.40 4.30 1.65
Betfair 5.00 4.00 1.53
Marathonbet 5.10 4.20 1.56
Pinnacle 5.28 4.39 1.61
SBO 4.74 3.89 1.57
William Hill 4.80 3.90 1.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.10 ▼ -0.05
X 4.10 ▲ +0.11
2 1.57 ▼ -0.05

14 snapshots recorded, from .