UEFA Europa League · 2026-09-17T19:00:00Z UTC Full time ·League Stage - 1

Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise

0 – 3 Full time

16′			Ondrej Kricfalusi
17′			Relebohile Mofokeng
42′			Mateo Biondic
43′			Mateo Biondic
45′			Patrik Hrošovský
45′			Karel SpáčilSampson Dweh
45′			Denis VišinskýSalim Fago Lawal
59′			Ondrej Kricfalusi
60′			Stefan Pirgic
63′			Mateo BiondicKevin Rodriguez
63′			Relebohile MofokengIlan Hurtevent
63′			Guilherme SmithDenzel De Roeve
64′			Prince Kwabena AduBaboucarr Faal
64′			Amar MemićAdam Gabriel
72′			Patrik HrošovskýLukáš Červ
75′			Ondrej KricfalusiNohim Chibani
82′			Darius OlaruDylan Aquino

Doosan Arena, PlzenReferee: I. Frid

Plzen

36%

Draw

26%

Union St. Gilloise

38%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

14	Shots	22
5	Shots on target	13
49	Possession %	51
5	Corners	1
13	Fouls	11
0	Offsides	3
10	Saves	4
374	Accurate passes	446

Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Plzen	Draw	Union St. Gilloise
Model	29.8%	20.9%	49.4%
Market	38.4%	27.1%	34.5%
Final	36.2%	25.5%	38.2%
Edge	-8.6%	-6.2%	+14.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Union St. Gilloise

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.37 vs 1.85.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Union St. Gilloise below the model: +14.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

98%

2+ goals

93%

3+ goals

79%

No goals

Plzen and Union St. Gilloise expected goals

Plzen

1.85

Union St. Gilloise

2.37

Total expected goals: 4.21

Plzen and Union St. Gilloise attack and defence ratings

Plzen

Attack

1.38 +38%

Defence

1.13 +13%

Union St. Gilloise

Attack

1.84 +84%

Defence

0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise: result vs prediction

Plzen 0 – 3 Union St. Gilloise

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

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Before and after this match

Plzen, previous: Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc: odds and pick
Plzen, next: Slavia Praha v Plzen analysis
Union St. Gilloise, previous: Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United prediction
Union St. Gilloise, next: Antwerp v Union St. Gilloise analysis

Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Union St. Gilloise	38.2%	2.62	+14.9%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	79.1%	1.26	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	76.9%	1.30	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.5%	1.34	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	50.7%	1.97	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Plzen	36.2%
	Draw	25.5%
	Union St. Gilloise	38.2%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	79.1%
	Under 2.5	20.9%
Both teams to score	Yes	76.9%
	No	23.1%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	61.8%
	12 (either side)	74.5%
	X2 (draw or away)	63.8%
Handicap -1	Union St. Gilloise win	30.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	18.6%
	Loss	50.7%
Correct score (top 3)	1-2	7.7%
	1-1	7.1%
	2-2	7.1%

Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise stats

Plzen and Union St. Gilloise recent form

newest first

Plzen	LDWDWL
Union St. Gilloise	WWWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.4%, draw 27.1%, away 34.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.51	3.63	2.80
Bet365	2.50	3.50	2.75
BetVictor	2.40	3.50	2.70
Betano	2.50	3.50	2.75
Betfair	2.45	3.50	2.75
Marathonbet	2.47	3.58	2.76
Pinnacle	2.48	3.65	2.81
SBO	2.39	3.38	2.66
William Hill	2.40	3.40	2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.47 ▲ +0.04

X 3.50 ▲ +0.03

2 2.75 ▼ -0.02

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-11T08:10:02Z.