UEFA Europa League · 2026-09-16T19:00:00Z UTC Full time ·League Stage - 1

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia

2 – 1 Full time

20′			K. Szmyt
29′			Norbert Wojtuszek
38′			Onyemaechi Bruno
43′			A. Gonzalez
46′			B. OnyemaechiN. Tiknizyan
46′			T. RomanczukE. Kozlowski
54′			Guilherme Montóia
62′			A. GonzalezR. Yaremchuk
63′			A. KlyngeH. Finndell
63′			J. ImazY. Sylla
75′			N. PrelecS. Lozano
76′			Santiago Hezze
77′			ChiquinhoG. Puerta
77′			S. HezzeL. Bailey
80′			Bernardo Vital
82′			M. SaliakasM. Pedersen
84′			R. Yaremchuk
87′			R. ConceicaoJ. Agbonifo

Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, PiraeusReferee: H. Osmers

Olympiakos Piraeus

67%

Draw

20%

Jagiellonia

13%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

25	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	3
58	Possession %	42
13	Corners	0
10	Fouls	13
1	Offsides	2
3	Saves	4
383	Accurate passes	264

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Olympiakos Piraeus	Draw	Jagiellonia
Model	44.7%	29.1%	26.2%
Market	73.8%	17.4%	8.7%
Final	66.5%	20.4%	13.1%
Edge	-29.1%	+11.7%	+17.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Olympiakos Piraeus

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.04.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

90%

2+ goals

72%

3+ goals

45%

No goals

10%

Olympiakos Piraeus and Jagiellonia expected goals

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.42

Jagiellonia

1.04

Total expected goals: 2.46

Olympiakos Piraeus and Jagiellonia attack and defence ratings

Olympiakos Piraeus

Attack

0.97 -3%

Defence

0.72 -28%

Jagiellonia

Attack

1.27 +27%

Defence

0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia: result vs prediction

Olympiakos Piraeus 2 – 1 Jagiellonia

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

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Before and after this match

Olympiakos Piraeus, previous: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI prediction
Olympiakos Piraeus, next: Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus prediction
Jagiellonia, previous: Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia prediction
Jagiellonia, next: Jagiellonia – Legia Warszawa, 2026-09-20

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Olympiakos Piraeus	66.5%	1.50	-29.1%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	55.4%	1.81	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	50.3%	1.99	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	86.9%	1.15	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	55.5%	1.80	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Olympiakos Piraeus	66.5%
	Draw	20.4%
	Jagiellonia	13.1%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44.6%
	Under 2.5	55.4%
Both teams to score	Yes	50.3%
	No	49.7%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	86.9%
	12 (either side)	79.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	33.5%
Handicap -1	Olympiakos Piraeus win	22.2%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.3%
	Loss	55.5%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.9%
	1-0	10.9%
	0-0	9.8%

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia stats

Olympiakos Piraeus and Jagiellonia recent form

newest first

Olympiakos Piraeus	LWDWWW
Jagiellonia	LWLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 71.8%, draw 18.8%, away 9.4%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	1.36	4.75	8.10
1xBet	1.31	5.58	11.40
888Sport	1.36	4.60	8.00
Bet365	1.30	5.00	11.00
BetVictor	1.25	5.50	11.00
Betano	1.35	5.50	9.50
Betfair	1.29	5.50	11.00
Dafabet	1.38	5.00	7.80
Marathonbet	1.29	5.50	11.25
Pinnacle	1.31	5.60	10.66
SBO	1.30	4.38	6.86
Unibet	1.36	4.90	8.50
William Hill	1.30	5.00	10.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.30 ▼ -0.06

X 5.50 ▲ +0.70

2 11.00 ▲ +2.90

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-10T08:10:01Z.