Jupiler Pro League · 2026-10-11T14:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 8

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven

1 – 1 Full time

6′			W. Balikwisha
17′			D. Opoku
42′			J. Lawrence
43′			O. Gil
56′			N. ChibaniD. De Roeve
56′			R. MofokengR. Florucz
66′			D. Opoku
67′			Guilherme SmithD. Aquino
67′			D. OlaruA. Ait El Hadj
69′			L. LakomyB. Verstraete
72′			R. MirisolaC. Ikwuemesi
85′			D. OpokuT. Ogiwara
85′			W. GeorgeK. Vaesen
85′			S. SchrijversE. Pletinckx
90′			M. SyllaD. Egel
90′			L. Patris

Stade Joseph Marien, BrusselsReferee: N. Verboomen

Union St. Gilloise

78%

Draw

14%

OH Leuven

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

15	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	1
62	Possession %	38
8	Corners	3
9	Fouls	10
1	Offsides	2
0	Saves	2
414	Accurate passes	234

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Union St. Gilloise	Draw	OH Leuven
Model	84.6%	11.1%	4.3%
Market	75.9%	15.4%	8.7%
Final	78.0%	14.3%	7.6%
Edge	+2.2%	-1.1%	-1.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Union St. Gilloise

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.08 vs 0.64.
Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Union St. Gilloise below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

97%

2+ goals

89%

3+ goals

72%

No goals

Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven expected goals

Union St. Gilloise

3.08

OH Leuven

0.64

Total expected goals: 3.72

Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven attack and defence ratings

Union St. Gilloise

Attack

1.78 +78%

Defence

0.70 -30%

OH Leuven

Attack

0.73 -27%

Defence

1.17 +17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven: result vs prediction

Union St. Gilloise 1 – 1 OH Leuven

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Jupiler Pro League

SK Beveren vs Lommel United — team news & stats · 2026-10-09
Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht · 2026-10-10
RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV · 2026-10-10
Zulte Waregem vs Gent · 2026-10-10
Genk v Kortrijk — match page · 2026-10-10
Standard Liege v Charleroi — match page · 2026-10-11
KVC Westerlo v Antwerp — match page · 2026-10-11
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden — team news & stats · 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

Union St. Gilloise, previous: Antwerp v Union St. Gilloise analysis
Union St. Gilloise, next: Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: odds and pick
OH Leuven, previous: OH Leuven v RAAL La Louvière analysis
OH Leuven, next: OH Leuven vs Francs Borains: odds and pick

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Union St. Gilloise	78.0%	1.28	+2.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	71.7%	1.39	—	—
Both teams to score	No	54.4%	1.84	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	92.4%	1.08	—	—
Handicap -1	Union St. Gilloise win	67.3%	1.49	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Union St. Gilloise	78.0%
	Draw	14.3%
	OH Leuven	7.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	71.7%
	Under 2.5	28.3%
Both teams to score	Yes	45.6%
	No	54.4%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	92.4%
	12 (either side)	85.7%
	X2 (draw or away)	22.0%
Handicap -1	Union St. Gilloise win	67.3%
	Push (exactly one goal)	17.2%
	Loss	15.5%
Correct score (top 3)	3-0	11.8%
	2-0	11.5%
	4-0	9.1%

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven stats

Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven recent form

newest first

Union St. Gilloise	WWWWWW
OH Leuven	WDLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven going into this match

league record before kick-off

Union St. Gilloise record

They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.7 at home.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.

OH Leuven record

They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

7Union St. Gilloise wins 2Draws 0OH Leuven wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-01-24	OH Leuven	Union St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League	0-0
2025-08-03	Union St. Gilloise	OH Leuven	Jupiler Pro League	5-0
2025-01-19	Union St. Gilloise	OH Leuven	Jupiler Pro League	1-0
2024-11-24	OH Leuven	Union St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League	1-1
2024-03-02	OH Leuven	Union St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League	0-2
2023-08-12	Union St. Gilloise	OH Leuven	Jupiler Pro League	5-1
2023-01-21	Union St. Gilloise	OH Leuven	Jupiler Pro League	1-0
2022-10-01	OH Leuven	Union St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League	0-3
2022-03-11	OH Leuven	Union St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League	1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 75.9%, draw 15.4%, away 8.7%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.23	6.64	11.80
Bet365	1.22	5.75	9.50
BetVictor	1.22	6.00	11.50
Betano	1.29	6.50	10.75
Betfair	1.18	5.50	10.50
Dafabet	1.26	6.40	10.00
Marathonbet	1.21	6.30	11.25
Pinnacle	1.24	6.09	12.39
SBO	1.23	5.42	8.10
William Hill	1.22	5.80	10.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.23 ▼ -0.02

X 6.04 ▲ +0.37

2 10.62 ▲ +0.74

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-05T08:10:01Z.