Union St. Gilloise
vs
OH Leuven
Garuda Lions Prediction: Union St. Gilloise
3 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven
| Probability | Union St. Gilloise | Draw | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 84.9% | 10.9% | 4.2% |
| Market | 75.1% | 15.6% | 9.3% |
| Final | 77.5% | 14.5% | 8.0% |
| Edge | +9.8% | -4.7% | -5.1% |
Why Union St. Gilloise
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.10 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Union St. Gilloise below the model: +9.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven match preview
Union St. Gilloise enters the match against OH Leuven with a strong probability of winning at 85%, reflecting their dominant recent form with six consecutive victories. In contrast, OH Leuven has struggled, recording one win, one draw, and four losses in their last six matches. The expected goals suggest a significant advantage for Union St. Gilloise, with an expected total of 3.10 compared to OH Leuven's 0.64.
The most likely scoreline is projected to be 3-0 in favor of Union St. Gilloise, with a 12% probability of occurring. Additionally, there is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals, while both teams scoring stands at 45%. In their last two encounters, Union St. Gilloise has secured one win and one draw against OH Leuven, who have yet to claim a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven attack and defence ratings
Union St. Gilloise
OH Leuven
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 77.5% | 1.29 | +9.8% | 1.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.0% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 77.5% |
| Draw | 14.5% | |
| OH Leuven | 8.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.5% |
| No | 54.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 22.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win | 67.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.0% | |
| Loss | 15.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 11.8% |
| 2-0 | 11.5% | |
| 4-0 | 9.2% |
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven stats
Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven recent form
| Union St. Gilloise |
WWWWWW |
| OH Leuven |
WDLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven season so far
Union St. Gilloise record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
OH Leuven record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | OH Leuven | Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Union St. Gilloise | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 75.1%, draw 15.6%, away 9.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.26 | 6.13 | 10.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 5.75 | 9.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 5.75 | 10.00 |
| Betano | 1.28 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
| Betfair | 1.18 | 6.00 | 10.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.26 | 6.40 | 10.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.24 | 5.85 | 10.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.23 | 6.34 | 10.70 |
| SBO | 1.21 | 5.32 | 7.91 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .