Jupiler Pro League · 2026-10-11T17:15:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 8

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden

4 – 3 Full time

5′			K. Takai
24′			K. Takai
34′			S. Michez
39′			S. Taniguchi
42′			K. Matsuzawa
44′			S. Bazdar
46′			K. MatsuzawaN. Ishiwatari
46′			R. ArakiN. Mbuku
49′			I. Sebaoui
53′			M. Decherf
62′			B. Raman
63′			B. RamanC. Van Meirvenne
67′			S. BazdarF. Soelle
67′			R. MerlenS. Shinkawa
71′			F. Soelle
81′			M. EerdhuijzenL. Marijnissen
81′			M. DecherfD. Praet
81′			T. KoudouB. Antonio
81′			B. BoersmaM. Lohunanu-Mbasi
84′			N. Ishiwatari
88′			S. Taniguchi
90′			F. Hammar

Achter de Kazerne, MechelenReferee: B. Verbeke

KV Mechelen

28%

Draw

26%

St. Truiden

46%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

8	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	7
36	Possession %	64
2	Corners	8
12	Fouls	14
4	Offsides	1
4	Saves	1
232	Accurate passes	485

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden overview

Garuda Lions analysis: KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	KV Mechelen	Draw	St. Truiden
Model	20.1%	23.3%	56.5%
Market	31.0%	26.6%	42.3%
Final	28.3%	25.8%	45.9%
Edge	-2.7%	-0.8%	+3.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why St. Truiden

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.14.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices St. Truiden below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

83%

3+ goals

61%

No goals

KV Mechelen and St. Truiden expected goals

KV Mechelen

1.14

St. Truiden

2.00

Total expected goals: 3.14

KV Mechelen and St. Truiden attack and defence ratings

KV Mechelen

Attack

0.66 -34%

Defence

1.42 +42%

St. Truiden

Attack

1.12 +12%

Defence

1.17 +17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden: result vs prediction

KV Mechelen 4 – 3 St. Truiden

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Jupiler Pro League

SK Beveren vs Lommel United — team news & stats · 2026-10-09
Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht · 2026-10-10
RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV · 2026-10-10
Zulte Waregem vs Gent · 2026-10-10
Genk v Kortrijk — match page · 2026-10-10
Standard Liege v Charleroi — match page · 2026-10-11
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
KVC Westerlo v Antwerp — match page · 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

KV Mechelen, previous: Lommel United vs KV Mechelen prediction
KV Mechelen, next: KV Mechelen v AS Eupen analysis
St. Truiden, previous: St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo: odds and pick
St. Truiden, next: St. Truiden – FC Iberia 1999, 2026-10-15

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	St. Truiden	45.9%	2.18	+3.5%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61.0%	1.64	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	59.9%	1.67	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.2%	1.35	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	43.8%	2.29	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	KV Mechelen	28.3%
	Draw	25.8%
	St. Truiden	45.9%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61.0%
	Under 2.5	39.0%
Both teams to score	Yes	59.9%
	No	40.1%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	54.1%
	12 (either side)	74.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	71.7%
Handicap -1	St. Truiden win	34.2%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.1%
	Loss	43.8%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	10.8%
	1-2	9.9%
	0-2	8.6%

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden stats

KV Mechelen and St. Truiden recent form

newest first

KV Mechelen	DLLDLD
St. Truiden	LLWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

KV Mechelen and St. Truiden going into this match

league record before kick-off

KV Mechelen record

They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

St. Truiden record

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0KV Mechelen wins 1Draws 9St. Truiden wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-24	St. Truiden	KV Mechelen	Jupiler Pro League	3-0
2026-04-26	KV Mechelen	St. Truiden	Jupiler Pro League	1-4
2025-12-21	St. Truiden	KV Mechelen	Jupiler Pro League	1-0
2025-10-04	KV Mechelen	St. Truiden	Jupiler Pro League	1-3
2025-02-21	KV Mechelen	St. Truiden	Jupiler Pro League	1-1
2024-11-08	St. Truiden	KV Mechelen	Jupiler Pro League	2-1
2024-05-12	St. Truiden	KV Mechelen	Jupiler Pro League	2-1
2024-04-05	KV Mechelen	St. Truiden	Jupiler Pro League	2-3
2023-12-03	KV Mechelen	St. Truiden	Jupiler Pro League	0-2
2023-09-17	St. Truiden	KV Mechelen	Jupiler Pro League	2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.0%, draw 26.6%, away 42.3%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	3.08	3.72	2.21
Bet365	3.00	3.40	2.20
BetVictor	3.00	3.60	2.20
Betano	3.15	3.50	2.22
Betfair	2.80	3.50	2.15
Dafabet	3.05	3.55	2.26
Marathonbet	3.00	3.62	2.15
Pinnacle	3.22	3.46	2.31
SBO	2.80	3.24	2.15
William Hill	3.00	3.40	2.15

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.00 ▼ -0.20

X 3.50 —

2 2.20 ▲ +0.15

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-05T08:10:01Z.