KV Mechelen
vs
St. Truiden
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Truiden
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
| Probability | KV Mechelen | Draw | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.5% | 23.5% | 56.0% |
| Market | 29.1% | 26.5% | 44.3% |
| Final | 27.0% | 25.8% | 47.3% |
| Edge | -8.6% | -3.1% | +11.7% |
Why St. Truiden
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices St. Truiden below the model: +11.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden match preview
KV Mechelen faces St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League with a kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 27% probability of a KV Mechelen victory, a 26% chance for a draw, and a 48% likelihood of a St. Truiden win. The expected goals for KV Mechelen stand at 1.15, while St. Truiden is projected at 2.00.
Recent form shows KV Mechelen struggling with a sequence of draws and losses, recording D-L-L-D-L-D in their last six matches. In contrast, St. Truiden has experienced mixed results, with a record of L-L-W-L-W-L over the same period. Historically, St. Truiden has dominated their recent encounters, winning all four of the last matches against KV Mechelen. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KV Mechelen and St. Truiden expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.15
KV Mechelen and St. Truiden attack and defence ratings
KV Mechelen
St. Truiden
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Truiden | 47.3% | 2.12 | +11.7% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.0% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KV Mechelen | 27.0% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| St. Truiden | 47.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Truiden win | 34.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 44.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 8.6% |
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden stats
KV Mechelen and St. Truiden recent form
| KV Mechelen |
DLLDLD |
| St. Truiden |
LLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
KV Mechelen and St. Truiden season so far
KV Mechelen record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
St. Truiden record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | St. Truiden | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | 3-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | KV Mechelen | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League | 1-4 |
| 2025-12-21 | St. Truiden | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | KV Mechelen | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.1%, draw 26.5%, away 44.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.26 | 3.74 | 2.11 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.17 |
| Marathonbet | 3.18 | 3.64 | 2.06 |
| Pinnacle | 3.37 | 3.40 | 2.18 |
| SBO | 2.80 | 3.16 | 2.09 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .