Garuda Lions
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Jupiler Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 8

SK Beveren vs Lommel United

1 – 3 Full time

Freethiel Stadion, Beveren

SK Beveren 52%
Draw 25%
Lommel United 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

SK Beveren vs Lommel United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: SK Beveren vs Lommel United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySK BeverenDrawLommel United
Model46.6%28.9%24.5%
Market53.3%23.3%23.3%
Final51.6%24.7%23.6%
Edge-6.8%+5.6%+1.2%

Confidence: Low

Why SK Beveren

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.00.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

SK Beveren ↓ / Lommel United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 7% 1 11% 14% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

SK Beveren and Lommel United expected goals

SK Beveren 1.46
Lommel United 1.00

Total expected goals: 2.45

SK Beveren and Lommel United attack and defence ratings

SK Beveren

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Lommel United

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

SK Beveren vs Lommel United: result vs prediction

SK Beveren 1 – 3 Lommel United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Jupiler Pro League

Before and after this match

SK Beveren vs Lommel United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 SK Beveren 51.6% 1.94 -6.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.6% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score No 50.4% 1.98 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.4% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.4% 1.87 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2SK Beveren51.6%
Draw24.7%
Lommel United23.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.4%
Under 2.555.6%
Both teams to scoreYes49.6%
No50.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.4%
12 (either side)75.3%
X2 (draw or away)48.4%
Handicap -1SK Beveren win23.7%
Push (exactly one goal)22.9%
Loss53.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
1-011.3%
0-09.9%

SK Beveren vs Lommel United stats

SK Beveren and Lommel United recent form

newest first
SK Beveren LWWLLW
Lommel United DLLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

SK Beveren and Lommel United going into this match

league record before kick-off

SK Beveren record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Lommel United record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

SK Beveren vs Lommel United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4SK Beveren wins 4Draws 2Lommel United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-08SK BeverenLommel UnitedChallenger Pro League2-0
2025-11-07Lommel UnitedSK BeverenChallenger Pro League2-2
2025-02-22Lommel UnitedSK BeverenChallenger Pro League1-2
2024-08-17SK BeverenLommel UnitedChallenger Pro League2-1
2024-04-19Lommel UnitedSK BeverenChallenger Pro League3-1
2023-11-12SK BeverenLommel UnitedChallenger Pro League2-2
2022-11-27SK BeverenLommel UnitedChallenger Pro League2-3
2022-09-04Lommel UnitedSK BeverenChallenger Pro League0-2
2022-03-19SK BeverenLommel UnitedChallenger Pro League1-1
2021-12-17Lommel UnitedSK BeverenChallenger Pro League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

SK Beveren vs Lommel United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 53.3%, draw 23.3%, away 23.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.79 4.11 4.11
Bet365 1.75 3.80 3.80
BetVictor 1.73 4.00 4.10
Betano 1.82 4.20 4.20
Betfair 1.67 3.90 4.00
Dafabet 1.81 4.00 4.00
Marathonbet 1.74 4.00 4.00
Pinnacle 1.83 4.03 4.15
SBO 1.72 3.57 3.74
William Hill 1.75 3.80 3.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.75 ▼ -0.05
X 4.00 ▲ +0.25
2 4.00 ▲ +0.10

14 snapshots recorded, from .