Dender
vs
KRC Genk II
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dender
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.86.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Dender vs KRC Genk II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dender vs KRC Genk II
| Probability | Dender | Draw | KRC Genk II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.0% | 23.7% | 15.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.0% | 23.7% | 15.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Dender
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Dender vs KRC Genk II match preview
Dender enters the match against KRC Genk II with a strong probability of winning at 61%, reflecting their recent form of four consecutive victories. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-0, occurring with an 11% probability. Dender's expected goals stand at 1.91, indicating a solid attacking performance, while KRC Genk II is projected to score only 0.86 goals.
KRC Genk II's recent form shows a mix of results, including two draws and two losses in their last five matches. Their probability of winning is 15%, with a 50% chance of both teams scoring. The forecast suggests a 52% likelihood of the match featuring over 2.5 goals, indicating potential for a dynamic encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dender and KRC Genk II expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Dender and KRC Genk II attack and defence ratings
Dender
KRC Genk II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dender vs KRC Genk II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dender | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.0% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dender | 61.0% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| KRC Genk II | 15.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dender win | 37.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 39.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.4% |
| 1-1 | 11.3% | |
| 1-0 | 11.0% |
Dender vs KRC Genk II stats
Dender and KRC Genk II recent form
| Dender |
LWWWWW |
| KRC Genk II |
DLDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dender and KRC Genk II season so far
Dender record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KRC Genk II record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).