Francs Borains
vs
Dender
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dender
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Dender is the favourite, not a value bet.
Francs Borains vs Dender overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Francs Borains vs Dender
| Probability | Francs Borains | Draw | Dender |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.7% | 28.1% | 51.2% |
| Market | 28.4% | 27.3% | 44.3% |
| Final | 26.5% | 27.5% | 46.0% |
| Edge | -1.9% | +0.2% | +1.7% |
Why Dender
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.5% per unit staked (our 46.0% × 2.14 − 1).
Francs Borains vs Dender match preview
Francs Borains will face Dender in the Challenger Pro League on October 23, 2026. According to our model, Francs Borains has a 22% chance of winning, while Dender is favored with a 51% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at an 11% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Francs Borains losing two of their last six matches, while Dender has won five of their last six.
In terms of expected goals, Francs Borains is projected to score 0.97, compared to Dender's 1.60. The model suggests a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is noted as C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Francs Borains and Dender expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
Francs Borains and Dender attack and defence ratings
Francs Borains
Dender
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Francs Borains vs Dender markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dender | 46.0% | 2.17 | +1.7% | 2.14 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Francs Borains | 26.5% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Dender | 46.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.8% |
| No | 52.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dender win | 27.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 0-1 | 12.2% | |
| 0-2 | 10.4% |
Francs Borains vs Dender stats
Francs Borains and Dender recent form
| Francs Borains |
LLWWWW |
| Dender |
LWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Francs Borains and Dender season so far
Francs Borains record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 71% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dender record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Francs Borains vs Dender head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-19 | Francs Borains | Dender | Challenger Pro League | 0-3 |
| 2023-12-05 | Dender | Francs Borains | Challenger Pro League | 2-0 |
| 2022-02-19 | Dender | Francs Borains | First Amateur Division | 3-1 |
| 2021-12-19 | Francs Borains | Dender | First Amateur Division | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Francs Borains vs Dender odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.4%, draw 27.3%, away 44.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.18 | 3.32 | 2.04 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.35 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.14 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.32 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.33 | 3.45 | 2.10 |
| SBO | 2.90 | 3.09 | 1.99 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .