Seraing United
vs
Excelsior Virton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Excelsior Virton
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.54.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton
| Probability | Seraing United | Draw | Excelsior Virton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.1% | 22.6% | 50.3% |
| Market | 39.1% | 26.5% | 34.4% |
| Final | 36.1% | 25.6% | 38.4% |
| Edge | -3.0% | -1.0% | +4.0% |
Why Excelsior Virton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Excelsior Virton below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.4% per unit staked (our 38.4% × 2.80 − 1).
Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton match preview
Seraing United faces Excelsior Virton in the Challenger Pro League on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Seraing United has a 29% probability of winning, while Excelsior Virton stands at 49%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Seraing United is 1.67, compared to Excelsior Virton's 2.18. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an 8% probability.
Recent form shows Seraing United with a record of L-W-D-L-L-D, while Excelsior Virton has performed better with L-W-D-W-L-W. The model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 73%. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Seraing United and Excelsior Virton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.66
Seraing United and Excelsior Virton attack and defence ratings
Seraing United
Excelsior Virton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior Virton | 38.4% | 2.61 | +4.0% | 2.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Seraing United | 36.1% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Excelsior Virton | 38.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.9% |
| No | 30.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Excelsior Virton win | 30.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton stats
Seraing United and Excelsior Virton recent form
| Seraing United |
LLWDLL |
| Excelsior Virton |
LLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Seraing United and Excelsior Virton season so far
Seraing United record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
Excelsior Virton record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-03 | Seraing United | Excelsior Virton | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 26.5%, away 34.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.32 | 2.60 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.40 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.31 | 3.32 | 2.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.51 | 2.75 |
| SBO | 2.20 | 3.09 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .