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Challenger Pro League · ·Matchday 8

KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II

Garuda Lions Prediction: KRC Genk II

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.65.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — KRC Genk II is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on KRC Genk II

Cegeka Arena, Genk

KRC Genk II 43%
Draw 24%
Club Brugge II 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance KRC Genk II wins
43%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
72%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II overview

Garuda Lions analysis: KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKRC Genk IIDrawClub Brugge II
Model48.3%22.4%29.4%
Market40.8%24.6%34.6%
Final42.7%24.1%33.3%
Edge+1.9%-0.6%-1.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why KRC Genk II

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.65.

Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.0% per unit staked (our 42.7% × 2.32 − 1).

KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II match preview

KRC Genk II faces Club Brugge II in the Challenger Pro League on October 24, 2026. According to our model, KRC Genk II has a 48% probability of winning, while Club Brugge II stands at 29%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The expected goals for KRC Genk II are 2.14, compared to Club Brugge II's 1.65. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of KRC Genk II, with a 9% likelihood.

In terms of recent form, KRC Genk II has recorded a mixed bag of results with L-D-L-W-W-L, while Club Brugge II has shown slightly better consistency with L-D-D-L-W-W. Our model indicates a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 72%. In their last two encounters, KRC Genk II has secured 1 win and 1 draw against Club Brugge II, who have yet to win.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

KRC Genk II ↓ / Club Brugge II → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 7% 2 5% 9% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 5% 4%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 3%

KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II expected goals

KRC Genk II 2.14
Club Brugge II 1.65

Total expected goals: 3.79

KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II attack and defence ratings

KRC Genk II

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Club Brugge II

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 1.34 +34%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Challenger Pro League

Before and after this match

KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 KRC Genk II 42.7% 2.34 +1.9% 2.32
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.9% 1.37 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.1% 1.39 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.9% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.7% 1.93 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2KRC Genk II42.7%
Draw24.1%
Club Brugge II33.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.9%
Under 2.527.1%
Both teams to scoreYes72.1%
No27.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.7%
12 (either side)75.9%
X2 (draw or away)57.3%
Handicap -1KRC Genk II win28.9%
Push (exactly one goal)19.3%
Loss51.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.8%
2-18.5%
2-27.1%
Compare prices for this pick

KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II stats

KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II recent form

newest first
KRC Genk II LDLWWL
Club Brugge II LDDLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II season so far

league record

KRC Genk II record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Club Brugge II record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

1KRC Genk II wins 1Draws 6Club Brugge II wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-10KRC Genk IIClub Brugge IIChallenger Pro League0-0
2025-08-31Club Brugge IIKRC Genk IIChallenger Pro League1-2
2025-03-14Club Brugge IIKRC Genk IIChallenger Pro League3-0
2024-11-09KRC Genk IIClub Brugge IIChallenger Pro League1-2
2024-03-01Club Brugge IIKRC Genk IIChallenger Pro League2-1
2023-08-25KRC Genk IIClub Brugge IIChallenger Pro League0-3
2022-12-09KRC Genk IIClub Brugge IIChallenger Pro League1-2
2022-10-09Club Brugge IIKRC Genk IIChallenger Pro League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.8%, draw 24.6%, away 34.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.20 3.65 2.56
Bet365 2.15 3.60 2.60
Betano 2.30 3.75 2.67
Betfair 2.25 3.80 2.55
Dafabet 2.32 3.85 2.80
Marathonbet 2.20 3.65 2.56
Pinnacle 2.25 3.99 2.69
SBO 2.12 3.35 2.49
William Hill 2.15 3.60 2.62
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 —
X 3.65 —
2 2.60 —

3 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 KRC Genk II Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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