AS Eupen
vs
Excelsior Virton
Garuda Lions Prediction: AS Eupen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton
| Probability | AS Eupen | Draw | Excelsior Virton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.2% | 25.3% | 33.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.2% | 25.3% | 33.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why AS Eupen
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton match preview
AS Eupen and Excelsior Virton are set to clash in the Challenger Pro League on November 1, 2026. According to our model, AS Eupen has a 41% probability of winning, while Excelsior Virton stands at 34%, with a 25% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of AS Eupen, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for AS Eupen are 1.70, compared to 1.52 for Excelsior Virton.
In terms of recent form, AS Eupen has experienced a mix of results, with two losses followed by four consecutive wins. Excelsior Virton, on the other hand, has also had a challenging run, recording three losses, one win, and one draw in their last five matches. Our model indicates a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AS Eupen and Excelsior Virton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
AS Eupen and Excelsior Virton attack and defence ratings
AS Eupen
Excelsior Virton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AS Eupen | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AS Eupen | 41.2% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Excelsior Virton | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% |
| No | 35.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | AS Eupen win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 58.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton stats
AS Eupen and Excelsior Virton recent form
| AS Eupen |
LLWWWW |
| Excelsior Virton |
LLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AS Eupen and Excelsior Virton season so far
AS Eupen record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Excelsior Virton record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.