Excelsior Virton
vs
Beerschot VA
Garuda Lions Prediction: Beerschot VA
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.51.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Beerschot VA is the favourite, not a value bet.
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA
| Probability | Excelsior Virton | Draw | Beerschot VA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.3% | 21.5% | 54.1% |
| Market | 19.9% | 23.4% | 56.7% |
| Final | 21.0% | 22.9% | 56.1% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -0.5% | -0.6% |
Why Beerschot VA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (our 56.1% × 1.66 − 1).
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA match preview
Excelsior Virton will face Beerschot VA in the Challenger Pro League, with kickoff set for November 7, 2026. According to our model, Beerschot VA holds a significant advantage with a 56% probability of winning, compared to Excelsior Virton's 23% and a 21% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Excelsior Virton stand at 1.47, while Beerschot VA is projected to score 2.35.
Recent form indicates a stark contrast between the two teams; Excelsior Virton has recorded three losses, one win, and one draw in their last five matches, while Beerschot VA boasts an impressive six consecutive wins. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.78
Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA attack and defence ratings
Excelsior Virton
Beerschot VA
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beerschot VA | 56.1% | 1.78 | -0.6% | 1.66 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior Virton | 21.0% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Beerschot VA | 56.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.6% |
| No | 29.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Beerschot VA win | 34.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 45.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-3 | 6.7% |
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA stats
Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA recent form
| Excelsior Virton |
WLLLWD |
| Beerschot VA |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA season so far
Excelsior Virton record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beerschot VA record
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-05 | Excelsior Virton | Beerschot VA | Belgium Cup | 0-1 |
| 2022-11-12 | Beerschot VA | Excelsior Virton | Challenger Pro League | 3-0 |
| 2022-09-18 | Excelsior Virton | Beerschot VA | Challenger Pro League | 1-2 |
| 2020-07-26 | Excelsior Virton | Beerschot VA | Challenger Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2019-12-07 | Beerschot VA | Excelsior Virton | Challenger Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2019-10-19 | Beerschot VA | Excelsior Virton | Challenger Pro League | 2-1 |
| 2019-09-21 | Excelsior Virton | Beerschot VA | Challenger Pro League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.9%, draw 23.4%, away 56.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.64 | 3.84 | 1.59 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| BetVictor | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.60 |
| Betano | 4.60 | 3.95 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
| Dafabet | 4.80 | 4.20 | 1.66 |
| Marathonbet | 4.55 | 3.84 | 1.57 |
| Pinnacle | 4.76 | 4.05 | 1.64 |
| SBO | 4.27 | 3.54 | 1.54 |
| William Hill | 4.50 | 3.70 | 1.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .