KRC Genk II
vs
KAA Gent II
Garuda Lions Prediction: KRC Genk II
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.30.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — KRC Genk II is the favourite, not a value bet.
KRC Genk II vs KAA Gent II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KRC Genk II vs KAA Gent II
| Probability | KRC Genk II | Draw | KAA Gent II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.6% | 26.4% | 29.0% |
| Market | 44.0% | 25.0% | 31.0% |
| Final | 44.1% | 25.4% | 30.5% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +0.3% | -0.5% |
Why KRC Genk II
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.30.
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (our 44.1% × 2.18 − 1).
KRC Genk II vs KAA Gent II match preview
KRC Genk II faces KAA Gent II in the Challenger Pro League with KRC Genk II holding a 45% probability of winning, while KAA Gent II stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of KRC Genk II, with a 9% chance. Additionally, there is a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance that both teams will score. Expected goals are 1.65 for KRC Genk II and 1.30 for KAA Gent II.
In terms of recent form, KRC Genk II has recorded two draws, followed by two losses and one win, while KAA Gent II has achieved one win, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. The head-to-head record shows that in their last two encounters, KRC Genk II has not secured a win, with two draws against KAA Gent II. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KRC Genk II and KAA Gent II expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.95
KRC Genk II and KAA Gent II attack and defence ratings
KRC Genk II
KAA Gent II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
KRC Genk II vs KAA Gent II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KRC Genk II | 44.1% | 2.27 | +0.2% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KRC Genk II | 44.1% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| KAA Gent II | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% |
| No | 40.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | KRC Genk II win | 23.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 55.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-0 | 7.5% |
KRC Genk II vs KAA Gent II stats
KRC Genk II and KAA Gent II recent form
| KRC Genk II |
DDLDLW |
| KAA Gent II |
WLWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
KRC Genk II and KAA Gent II season so far
KRC Genk II record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KAA Gent II record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KRC Genk II vs KAA Gent II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | KRC Genk II | KAA Gent II | Challenger Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-22 | KAA Gent II | KRC Genk II | Challenger Pro League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
KRC Genk II vs KAA Gent II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.0%, draw 25.0%, away 31.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.48 | 2.94 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.65 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.18 | 3.80 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.07 | 3.48 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.77 | 3.21 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.28 | 2.76 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .