Excelsior Virton
vs
Genk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Excelsior Virton
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Excelsior Virton vs Genk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Excelsior Virton vs Genk
| Probability | Excelsior Virton | Draw | Genk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.6% | 26.9% | 27.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 45.6% | 26.9% | 27.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Excelsior Virton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Excelsior Virton vs Genk match preview
Excelsior Virton faces Genk in the Belgium Cup with a probability of 46% for a home win, while both teams have a 27% chance of a draw or an away victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Excelsior Virton, with an expected goals tally of 1.61 for them and 1.21 for Genk.
In terms of recent form, Excelsior Virton has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Conversely, Genk's recent performances show two wins, two draws, and one loss. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 53%, and both teams scoring is projected at 57%, indicating a potentially competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Excelsior Virton and Genk expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.82
Excelsior Virton and Genk attack and defence ratings
Excelsior Virton
Genk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Excelsior Virton vs Genk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior Virton | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior Virton | 45.6% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Genk | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% |
| No | 42.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Excelsior Virton win | 24.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 54.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 8.5% |
Excelsior Virton vs Genk stats
Excelsior Virton and Genk recent form
| Excelsior Virton |
LWDWLW |
| Genk |
WLDDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.