Excelsior Virton
vs
Sporting Hasselt
Garuda Lions Prediction: Excelsior Virton
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt
| Probability | Excelsior Virton | Draw | Sporting Hasselt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 26.8% | 25.5% |
| Market | 36.4% | 25.9% | 37.7% |
| Final | 39.2% | 26.1% | 34.7% |
| Edge | +11.3% | +1.0% | -12.2% |
Why Excelsior Virton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.14.
- The market prices Excelsior Virton below the model: +11.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt match preview
Excelsior Virton is set to face Sporting Hasselt in the Challenger Pro League on October 10, 2026. The model assigns a 48% probability of a win for Excelsior Virton, while a draw stands at 27% and a victory for Sporting Hasselt at 25%. The expected goals for Excelsior Virton are 1.64, compared to 1.15 for Sporting Hasselt, indicating a slight advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Excelsior Virton has recorded a mixed bag of results with a sequence of D-W-L-W-W-L, while Sporting Hasselt has shown slightly better consistency with L-W-L-L-W-W. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Excelsior Virton, with a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Excelsior Virton and Sporting Hasselt expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Excelsior Virton and Sporting Hasselt attack and defence ratings
Excelsior Virton
Sporting Hasselt
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior Virton | 39.2% | 2.55 | +11.3% | 2.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior Virton | 39.2% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Sporting Hasselt | 34.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.1% |
| No | 43.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Excelsior Virton win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt stats
Excelsior Virton and Sporting Hasselt recent form
| Excelsior Virton |
DWLWWL |
| Sporting Hasselt |
LWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Excelsior Virton and Sporting Hasselt season so far
Excelsior Virton record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Sporting Hasselt record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Excelsior Virton | Sporting Hasselt | Belgium Cup | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.4%, draw 25.9%, away 37.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.60 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.65 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | 3.79 | 2.46 |
| SBO | 2.42 | 3.08 | 2.31 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .