Beerschot VA
vs
Liège
Garuda Lions Prediction: Beerschot VA
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Beerschot VA vs Liège overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Beerschot VA vs Liège
| Probability | Beerschot VA | Draw | Liège |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.5% | 17.9% | 14.6% |
| Market | 64.2% | 20.4% | 15.4% |
| Final | 65.0% | 19.8% | 15.2% |
| Edge | +3.3% | -2.5% | -0.8% |
Why Beerschot VA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Beerschot VA below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Beerschot VA vs Liège match preview
Beerschot VA enters the match against Liège with a strong probability of winning at 67%, reflecting their recent form of four wins in their last six matches. They have an expected goals figure of 2.67, indicating a potent attacking threat. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, with a 9% likelihood, and there is a 75% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
In contrast, Liège has struggled recently, recording one win in their last six outings, leading to a lower probability of 15% for an away victory. Their expected goals stand at 1.22, suggesting they may find it challenging to breach Beerschot VA's defense. The head-to-head record also favors Beerschot VA, who have won all three of their last encounters against Liège.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Beerschot VA and Liège expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.90
Beerschot VA and Liège attack and defence ratings
Beerschot VA
Liège
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Beerschot VA vs Liège markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beerschot VA | 65.0% | 1.54 | +3.3% | 1.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Beerschot VA win | 47.5% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beerschot VA | 65.0% |
| Draw | 19.8% | |
| Liège | 15.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.4% |
| No | 33.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Beerschot VA win | 47.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 32.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | |
| 1-1 | 7.3% |
Beerschot VA vs Liège stats
Beerschot VA and Liège recent form
| Beerschot VA |
WWWWLW |
| Liège |
LDDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Beerschot VA and Liège season so far
Beerschot VA record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liège record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Beerschot VA vs Liège head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Liège | Beerschot VA | Challenger Pro League | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Beerschot VA | Liège | Challenger Pro League | 3-0 |
| 2024-10-30 | Beerschot VA | Liège | Belgium Cup | 3-1 |
| 2024-02-04 | Liège | Beerschot VA | Challenger Pro League | 1-4 |
| 2023-11-26 | Beerschot VA | Liège | Challenger Pro League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Beerschot VA vs Liège odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.2%, draw 20.4%, away 15.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.39 | 4.50 | 6.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.45 | 5.60 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.47 | 4.90 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 4.50 | 5.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 4.39 | 6.17 |
| SBO | 1.37 | 4.13 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .