Garuda Lions
Today
Challenger Pro League · ·Matchday 7

K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains

Garuda Lions Prediction: Francs Borains

0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability

Bet on Francs Borains

Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Lier

K. Lierse S.K. 31%
Draw 28%
Francs Borains 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Francs Borains wins
41%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
91%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
51%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 1
11% of simulated outcomes

K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains overview

Garuda Lions analysis: K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityK. Lierse S.K.DrawFrancs Borains
Model26.3%28.8%45.0%
Market32.9%27.5%39.5%
Final31.3%27.8%40.9%
Edge-6.7%+1.2%+5.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Francs Borains

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.06.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Francs Borains below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains match preview

K. Lierse S.K. faces Francs Borains in the Challenger Pro League, with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model assigns probabilities of 26% for a K. Lierse S.K. win, 29% for a draw, and 45% for a Francs Borains victory. The expected goals suggest K. Lierse S.K. will score 1.06, while Francs Borains is projected to net 1.46. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability.

In terms of recent form, K. Lierse S.K. has recorded one win in their last six matches (L-D-D-W-L-D), while Francs Borains has won three of their last six (W-W-W-L-W-L). Both teams have shown the potential for scoring, with a 51% chance that both will find the net and a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

K. Lierse S.K. ↓ / Francs Borains → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 10% 9% 1 7% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains expected goals

K. Lierse S.K. 1.06
Francs Borains 1.46

Total expected goals: 2.52

K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains attack and defence ratings

K. Lierse S.K.

Attack 0.73 -27%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Francs Borains

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Challenger Pro League

Before and after this match

K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Francs Borains 40.9% 2.45 +5.5% 2.41
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.0% 1.85 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.4% 1.95 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.2% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.1% 1.82 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2K. Lierse S.K.31.3%
Draw27.8%
Francs Borains40.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.0%
Under 2.554.0%
Both teams to scoreYes51.4%
No48.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.1%
12 (either side)72.2%
X2 (draw or away)68.7%
Handicap -1Francs Borains win22.7%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss55.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
0-110.5%
0-09.3%
Compare prices for this pick

K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains stats

K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains recent form

newest first
K. Lierse S.K. LDDWLD
Francs Borains WWWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains season so far

league record

K. Lierse S.K. record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Francs Borains record

  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 77% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

3K. Lierse S.K. wins 0Draws 3Francs Borains wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-04K. Lierse S.K.Francs BorainsChallenger Pro League0-2
2025-12-13Francs BorainsK. Lierse S.K.Challenger Pro League0-1
2025-03-02Francs BorainsK. Lierse S.K.Challenger Pro League1-0
2024-10-06K. Lierse S.K.Francs BorainsChallenger Pro League4-0
2024-03-02K. Lierse S.K.Francs BorainsChallenger Pro League3-1
2023-09-17Francs BorainsK. Lierse S.K.Challenger Pro League2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.9%, draw 27.5%, away 39.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.82 3.22 2.27
Bet365 2.70 3.30 2.25
Betano 2.82 3.30 2.35
Betfair 2.75 3.40 2.30
Dafabet 2.90 3.45 2.39
Marathonbet 2.76 3.22 2.25
Pinnacle 2.86 3.31 2.41
SBO 2.59 3.01 2.21
William Hill 2.75 3.00 2.30
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.76 —
X 3.30 ▲ +0.04
2 2.30 ▲ +0.01

8 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Francs Borains Predicted score 0 – 1 Low Bet Now
v Bet Now