Genk
vs
Standard Liege
Garuda Lions Prediction: Genk
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Genk is the favourite, not a value bet.
Genk vs Standard Liege overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Genk vs Standard Liege
| Probability | Genk | Draw | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.4% | 26.7% | 23.9% |
| Market | 53.8% | 24.6% | 21.6% |
| Final | 52.7% | 25.2% | 22.2% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +0.5% | +0.6% |
Why Genk
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.09.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (our 52.7% × 1.78 − 1).
Genk vs Standard Liege match preview
Genk faces Standard Liege in the Jupiler Pro League with a probability of 49% for a Genk victory, while a draw stands at 27% and Standard Liege at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Genk, with an expected goals tally of 1.65 for Genk and 1.09 for Standard Liege.
In terms of recent form, Genk has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Standard Liege has achieved three wins and two losses in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last five encounters shows Genk with one win, Standard Liege with two wins, and two matches ending in a draw. The model indicates a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Genk and Standard Liege expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Genk and Standard Liege attack and defence ratings
Genk
Standard Liege
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen — team news & stats
- Antwerp vs Charleroi
- OH Leuven v Lommel United — match page
- KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren — team news & stats
- RAAL La Louvière vs Zulte Waregem
- Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden
- Gent v Anderlecht — match page
- Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Genk vs Standard Liege markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genk | 52.7% | 1.90 | -1.1% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genk | 52.7% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Standard Liege | 22.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% |
| No | 45.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Genk win | 26.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 9.5% |
Genk vs Standard Liege stats
Genk and Standard Liege recent form
| Genk |
WWLDDW |
| Standard Liege |
WLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Genk and Standard Liege season so far
Genk record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Standard Liege record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Genk vs Standard Liege head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Standard Liege | Genk | Jupiler Pro League | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Genk | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Genk | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League | 0-3 |
| 2025-08-10 | Standard Liege | Genk | Jupiler Pro League | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-04 | Genk | Standard Liege | Belgium Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Genk vs Standard Liege odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.8%, draw 24.6%, away 21.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.86 | 4.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.85 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.76 | 3.95 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.76 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.72 |
| SBO | 1.70 | 3.49 | 3.67 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .