Antwerp
vs
Charleroi
Garuda Lions Prediction: Charleroi
0 – 2 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.81.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Antwerp vs Charleroi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Antwerp vs Charleroi
| Probability | Antwerp | Draw | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.8% | 21.8% | 65.4% |
| Market | 23.5% | 24.0% | 52.5% |
| Final | 20.8% | 23.4% | 55.7% |
| Edge | -2.7% | -0.5% | +3.2% |
Why Charleroi
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Charleroi below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.1% per unit staked (our 55.7% × 1.85 − 1).
Antwerp vs Charleroi match preview
Antwerp faces Charleroi in the Jupiler Pro League with contrasting recent forms. Antwerp has struggled significantly, recording five losses and one draw in their last six matches. In contrast, Charleroi has shown strong performance, with five wins and one loss in the same timeframe. Our model assigns a 12% probability of an Antwerp win, a 19% chance of a draw, and a 69% likelihood of a Charleroi victory, indicating a clear advantage for the visitors.
The expected goals for this match suggest Antwerp will struggle to find the net, with an expected goal tally of 0.91 compared to Charleroi's 2.35. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, occurring at an 11% probability. Additionally, there is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Antwerp and Charleroi expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
Antwerp and Charleroi attack and defence ratings
Antwerp
Charleroi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen — team news & stats
- OH Leuven v Lommel United — match page
- KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren — team news & stats
- RAAL La Louvière vs Zulte Waregem
- Genk v Standard Liege — match page
- Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden
- Gent v Anderlecht — match page
- Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Antwerp vs Charleroi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleroi | 55.7% | 1.79 | +3.2% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Charleroi win | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antwerp | 20.8% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Charleroi | 55.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.6% |
| No | 50.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Charleroi win | 41.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 34.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.0% |
| 0-1 | 10.7% | |
| 1-1 | 10.4% |
Antwerp vs Charleroi stats
Antwerp and Charleroi recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Antwerp and Charleroi season so far
Antwerp record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charleroi record
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Antwerp vs Charleroi head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Antwerp | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Charleroi | Antwerp | Jupiler Pro League | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Antwerp | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-17 | Charleroi | Antwerp | Jupiler Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-29 | Antwerp | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-08 | Antwerp | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 1-3 |
| 2024-07-28 | Charleroi | Antwerp | Jupiler Pro League | 0-1 |
| 2024-01-21 | Antwerp | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 4-1 |
| 2023-12-06 | Antwerp | Charleroi | Cup | 5-2 |
| 2023-10-21 | Charleroi | Antwerp | Jupiler Pro League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Antwerp vs Charleroi odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.5%, draw 24.0%, away 52.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.95 | 4.00 | 1.84 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 3.95 | 4.05 | 1.82 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.73 |
| Dafabet | 4.00 | 3.85 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 3.85 | 3.90 | 1.79 |
| Pinnacle | 3.96 | 4.10 | 1.79 |
| SBO | 3.58 | 3.38 | 1.74 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.80 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .