Gent
vs
Anderlecht
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gent
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Gent is the favourite, not a value bet.
Gent vs Anderlecht overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gent vs Anderlecht
| Probability | Gent | Draw | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.4% | 31.4% | 31.3% |
| Market | 39.8% | 29.4% | 30.7% |
| Final | 39.2% | 29.9% | 30.9% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +0.5% | +0.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (our 39.2% × 2.44 − 1).
Gent vs Anderlecht match preview
Gent will face Anderlecht in the Jupiler Pro League with a probability of 40% for a Gent victory, while a draw stands at 31% and Anderlecht at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Gent, with an expected goals tally of 1.38 for Gent and 0.83 for Anderlecht. Recent form shows Gent with two wins and a draw in their last five matches, while Anderlecht has struggled, recording three losses and two wins.
In their last five encounters, Gent has secured one win, with Anderlecht winning three times and one match ending in a draw. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 38%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 43%. With a confidence grade of C, this matchup presents an intriguing challenge for both sides.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gent and Anderlecht expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Gent and Anderlecht attack and defence ratings
Gent
Anderlecht
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen — team news & stats
- Antwerp vs Charleroi
- OH Leuven v Lommel United — match page
- KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren — team news & stats
- RAAL La Louvière vs Zulte Waregem
- Genk v Standard Liege — match page
- Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden
- Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Gent vs Anderlecht markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gent | 39.2% | 2.55 | -0.6% | 2.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gent | 39.2% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Anderlecht | 30.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.7% |
| No | 53.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gent win | 16.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 62.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.9% | |
| 1-0 | 11.2% |
Gent vs Anderlecht stats
Gent and Anderlecht recent form
| Gent |
LDWWWD |
| Anderlecht |
WLLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gent and Anderlecht season so far
Gent record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Anderlecht record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gent vs Anderlecht head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Gent | Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Anderlecht | Gent | Jupiler Pro League | 3-1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Gent | Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | 4-2 |
| 2026-01-15 | Anderlecht | Gent | Belgium Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Anderlecht | Gent | Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gent vs Anderlecht odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.8%, draw 29.4%, away 30.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.44 | 3.12 | 3.16 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.35 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.04 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | 3.15 | 3.28 |
| SBO | 2.19 | 3.01 | 2.77 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .