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UEFA Europa League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht

0 – 3 Full time

21′Mihajlo Cvetkovic
45′Rodrigo Conceição
45′Hampus FinndellOusmane Sow
46′Thelo Aasgaard
53′Bernardo Vital
65′Kamil JóźwiakJeremy Agbonifo
65′Kajetan·SzmytAleksandar·Cirkovic
65′Lukas AmbrosEnric Llansana
65′Tristan DegreefJayden Onia-Seke
67′Eryk Kozlowski
71′Enric Llansana
72′Marten Winkler
77′Ferslev Anders KlyngeTaras Romanczuk
78′Mario StroeykensMarco Kana
78′Mihajlo CvetkovicAdriano Bertaccini
80′Jayden Onia-Seke
81′Jayden Onia-Seke
82′Marten WinklerOliver Antman
82′Nik PrelecJesús Imaz

Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, BialystokReferee: Ondrej Berka

Jagiellonia 32%
Draw 27%
Anderlecht 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

6 Shots 15
1 Shots on target 8
41 Possession % 59
4 Corners 4
12 Fouls 20
2 Offsides 0
5 Saves 1
287 Accurate passes 437

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityJagielloniaDrawAnderlecht
Model35.1%28.8%36.1%
Market30.7%27.0%42.3%
Final31.8%27.5%40.7%
Edge+1.1%+0.5%-1.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Anderlecht

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Jagiellonia ↓ / Anderlecht → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 8% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Jagiellonia and Anderlecht expected goals

Jagiellonia 1.29
Anderlecht 1.32

Total expected goals: 2.60

Jagiellonia and Anderlecht attack and defence ratings

Jagiellonia

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Anderlecht

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht: result vs prediction

Jagiellonia 0 – 3 Anderlecht

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Europa League

Before and after this match

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Anderlecht 40.7% 2.45 -1.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.6% 1.94 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.3% 1.84 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.5% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.7% 1.57 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Jagiellonia31.8%
Draw27.5%
Anderlecht40.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.4%
Under 2.551.6%
Both teams to scoreYes54.3%
No45.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.3%
12 (either side)72.5%
X2 (draw or away)68.2%
Handicap -1Anderlecht win16.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.4%
Loss63.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.8%
0-08.6%
0-18.4%

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht stats

Jagiellonia and Anderlecht recent form

newest first
Jagiellonia LWLLLL
Anderlecht LLWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Jagiellonia and Anderlecht going into this match

league record before kick-off

Jagiellonia record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Anderlecht record

  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.7%, draw 27.0%, away 42.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.12 3.67 2.28
Bet365 3.10 3.50 2.25
BetVictor 3.00 3.50 2.20
Betano 3.10 3.55 2.25
Betfair 3.10 3.50 2.25
Dafabet 3.10 3.60 2.29
Marathonbet 3.08 3.62 2.25
Pinnacle 3.18 3.57 2.28
SBO 2.74 3.12 2.15
William Hill 2.90 3.40 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.10 ▲ +0.17
X 3.52 ▼ -0.04
2 2.25 ▼ -0.05

12 snapshots recorded, from .