Jagiellonia
vs
Anderlecht
Garuda Lions Prediction: Anderlecht
1 β 2 Predicted score Β· 9% model probability
Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht
| Probability | Jagiellonia | Draw | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.2% | 28.3% | 38.5% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 33.2% | 28.3% | 38.5% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Anderlecht
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht match preview
Jagiellonia faces Anderlecht in the UEFA Europa League with a kickoff set for October 22, 2026. According to our model, Jagiellonia has a 33% chance of winning, while Anderlecht holds a 38% probability. The expected goals for Jagiellonia is 1.28, slightly lower than Anderlecht's 1.40. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Jagiellonia has recorded three losses, one win, and one draw in their last five matches, while Anderlecht has two wins, one loss, one draw, and one win in their last five. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 56%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jagiellonia and Anderlecht expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Jagiellonia and Anderlecht attack and defence ratings
Jagiellonia
Anderlecht
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Anderlecht | 38.5% | 2.60 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% | 1.80 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.5% | 1.63 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 33.2% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Anderlecht | 38.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% |
| No | 44.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Anderlecht win | 18.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 61.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 0-1 | 8.3% |
Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht stats
Jagiellonia and Anderlecht recent form
| Jagiellonia |
LLLWLW |
| Anderlecht |
WLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jagiellonia and Anderlecht season so far
Anderlecht record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.