Jagiellonia
vs
Wisla Plock
Garuda Lions Prediction: Jagiellonia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.28.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Jagiellonia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock
| Probability | Jagiellonia | Draw | Wisla Plock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.6% | 26.3% | 28.2% |
| Market | 46.6% | 25.9% | 27.4% |
| Final | 46.4% | 26.0% | 27.6% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +0.1% | +0.2% |
Why Jagiellonia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.28.
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (our 46.4% × 2.07 − 1).
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock match preview
Jagiellonia faces Wisla Plock in an Ekstraklasa matchup on October 25, 2026. According to our model, Jagiellonia holds a 57% probability of winning, while Wisla Plock has a 20% chance. The expected goals for Jagiellonia are 2.04, compared to 1.17 for Wisla Plock. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%.
Recent form shows Jagiellonia struggling with a sequence of losses, having recorded L-W-L-L-L-L in their last six matches. In contrast, Wisla Plock has shown more resilience, with a record of L-W-W-D-W-L in the same timeframe. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 62%, and both teams scoring is projected at 61%. Head-to-head results from the last two encounters show each team with one win.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.95
Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock attack and defence ratings
Jagiellonia
Wisla Plock
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats
- Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze — match page
- Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow
- Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice — match page
- Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats
- Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats
- Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków — match page
- Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan
Before and after this match
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 46.4% | 2.16 | -0.3% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 46.4% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Wisla Plock | 27.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% |
| No | 40.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jagiellonia win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 54.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 7.7% |
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock stats
Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock recent form
| Jagiellonia |
LLWLLL |
| Wisla Plock |
WLWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock season so far
Jagiellonia record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wisla Plock record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Jagiellonia | Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-19 | Wisla Plock | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.6%, draw 25.9%, away 27.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.58 | 3.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.55 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 3.70 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.58 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.65 | 3.51 |
| SBO | 1.99 | 3.18 | 3.01 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .