Legia Warszawa
vs
Lech Poznan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Legia Warszawa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.53.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan
| Probability | Legia Warszawa | Draw | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.6% | 22.8% | 27.6% |
| Market | 35.7% | 27.0% | 37.4% |
| Final | 39.2% | 25.9% | 34.9% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -1.0% | -2.5% |
Why Legia Warszawa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.53.
- The market prices Legia Warszawa below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.9% per unit staked (our 39.2% × 2.73 − 1).
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan match preview
Legia Warszawa faces Lech Poznan in an Ekstraklasa matchup with both teams showing competitive form. Legia's recent results include a draw and three wins, while Lech has alternated between wins and losses, most recently suffering two defeats. According to our model, Legia Warszawa has a 38% chance of winning, while Lech Poznan stands at 37%, with a 25% probability for a draw. The expected goals are 2.14 for Legia and 1.64 for Lech, suggesting a potentially high-scoring game.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Legia, with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% likelihood that both teams will score. In their last two encounters, Legia has not secured a win against Lech, who has one victory and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.62
Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan attack and defence ratings
Legia Warszawa
Lech Poznan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze — match page
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- Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice — match page
- Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats
- Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats
- Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków — match page
- Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock
Before and after this match
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Legia Warszawa | 39.2% | 2.55 | +3.5% | 2.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.4% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Legia Warszawa | 39.2% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Lech Poznan | 34.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.5% |
| No | 30.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win | 29.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 50.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan stats
Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan recent form
| Legia Warszawa |
DWWDWL |
| Lech Poznan |
DWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan season so far
Legia Warszawa record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lech Poznan record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Lech Poznan | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Legia Warszawa | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.7%, draw 27.0%, away 37.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.44 | 2.48 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.44 | 2.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.46 | 2.50 |
| SBO | 2.46 | 3.13 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.25 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .