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Ekstraklasa · ·Matchday 12

Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa

Garuda Lions Prediction: Wisla Krakow

2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.06.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Wisla Krakow

Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, KrakowReferee: Tomasz Kwiatkowski

Wisla Krakow 55%
Draw 23%
Raków Częstochowa 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Wisla Krakow wins
55%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
59%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
10% of simulated outcomes

Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWisla KrakowDrawRaków Częstochowa
Model61.7%21.7%16.6%
Market52.3%23.5%24.2%
Final54.6%23.0%22.3%
Edge+2.3%-0.4%-1.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Wisla Krakow

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.06.
  • The market prices Wisla Krakow below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.0% per unit staked (our 54.6% × 1.83 − 1).

Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa match preview

Wisla Krakow faces Raków Częstochowa in an Ekstraklasa matchup with kickoff set for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Wisla Krakow has a 61% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 22% and Raków Częstochowa at 17%. The expected goals for Wisla Krakow is 2.15, compared to 1.06 for Raków Częstochowa. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 10% likelihood.

In terms of recent form, Wisla Krakow has recorded a sequence of D-L-W-W-D-L, while Raków Częstochowa shows W-L-L-L-W-L. The model indicates a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Wisla Krakow ↓ / Raków Częstoch → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 10% 2 9% 10% 5% 3 7% 7% 4+ 6% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa expected goals

Wisla Krakow 2.16
Raków Częstochowa 1.06

Total expected goals: 3.22

Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa attack and defence ratings

Wisla Krakow

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Raków Częstochowa

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.41 +41%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Ekstraklasa

Before and after this match

Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Wisla Krakow 54.6% 1.83 +2.3% 1.83
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.4% 1.60 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.6% 1.71 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.7% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Wisla Krakow win 39.5% 2.53 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Wisla Krakow54.6%
Draw23.0%
Raków Częstochowa22.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%
Both teams to scoreYes58.6%
No41.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.7%
12 (either side)77.0%
X2 (draw or away)45.4%
Handicap -1Wisla Krakow win39.5%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss38.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.1%
2-19.9%
2-09.4%
Compare prices for this pick

Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa stats

Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa recent form

newest first
Wisla Krakow DLWWDL
Raków Częstochowa WLLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa season so far

league record

Wisla Krakow record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.

Raków Częstochowa record

  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.1%, draw 23.6%, away 24.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.76 3.92 3.90
Bet365 1.75 3.80 3.80
BetVictor 1.75 3.80 3.80
Betano 1.82 3.90 3.80
Betfair 1.75 4.00 4.00
Dafabet 1.83 4.00 3.95
Marathonbet 1.74 3.92 3.90
Pinnacle 1.82 4.11 3.76
SBO 1.79 3.43 3.37
William Hill 1.80 3.80 3.70
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.76 ▲ +0.07
X 3.92 ▼ -0.18
2 3.80 ▼ -0.30

11 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Wisla Krakow Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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