Lech Poznan
vs
Wisla Krakow
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lech Poznan
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.24.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lech Poznan is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow
| Probability | Lech Poznan | Draw | Wisla Krakow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.7% | 22.1% | 20.2% |
| Market | 53.5% | 23.3% | 23.1% |
| Final | 54.6% | 23.0% | 22.4% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
Why Lech Poznan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (our 54.6% × 1.76 − 1).
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow match preview
Lech Poznan faces Wisla Krakow in an Ekstraklasa matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Lech Poznan holds a 58% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22% and Wisla Krakow at 20%. The expected goals for Lech Poznan are 2.19, compared to Wisla Krakow's 1.25, indicating a strong offensive outlook for the home side.
Recent form shows Lech Poznan with a mixed record of D-W-L-W-W-L, while Wisla Krakow has been more consistent with W-D-L-W-W-D. Our model suggests a likely scoreline of 2-1, with a 10% chance of this outcome occurring. Additionally, there is a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow attack and defence ratings
Lech Poznan
Wisla Krakow
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
- Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice — match page
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce — team news & stats
- Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin — match page
- GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź — team news & stats
- Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin
- Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw — match page
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 54.6% | 1.83 | +1.1% | 1.76 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 54.6% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Wisla Krakow | 22.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% |
| No | 36.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win | 36.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow stats
Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow recent form
| Lech Poznan |
WDWLWW |
| Wisla Krakow |
WDLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow season so far
Lech Poznan record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Wisla Krakow record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.5%, draw 23.3%, away 23.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.98 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.05 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.98 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 4.04 | 4.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .