GKS Katowice
vs
Widzew Łódź
Garuda Lions Prediction: GKS Katowice
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.96.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź overview
Garuda Lions analysis: GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź
| Probability | GKS Katowice | Draw | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.9% | 26.6% | 20.4% |
| Market | 44.4% | 25.6% | 30.0% |
| Final | 46.5% | 25.9% | 27.6% |
| Edge | +2.1% | +0.3% | -2.4% |
Why GKS Katowice
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices GKS Katowice below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (our 46.5% × 2.12 − 1).
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź match preview
GKS Katowice hosts Widzew Łódź in their upcoming Ekstraklasa clash, with GKS Katowice holding a 53% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring at an 11% likelihood. GKS Katowice's expected goals stand at 1.67, while Widzew Łódź is at 0.96, indicating a potential advantage for the home side in terms of offensive output.
Recent form shows GKS Katowice with two wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Widzew Łódź has struggled, recording six draws and one loss. The head-to-head record in the last three encounters is evenly matched, with each team securing one win and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.63
GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź attack and defence ratings
GKS Katowice
Widzew Łódź
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
- Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice — match page
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce — team news & stats
- Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow
- Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin — match page
- Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin
- Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw — match page
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats
Before and after this match
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GKS Katowice | 46.5% | 2.15 | +2.1% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GKS Katowice | 46.5% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Widzew Łódź | 27.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% |
| No | 48.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | GKS Katowice win | 29.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | |
| 2-0 | 10.1% |
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź stats
GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź recent form
| GKS Katowice |
LLWWWL |
| Widzew Łódź |
DDLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź season so far
GKS Katowice record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Widzew Łódź record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | GKS Katowice | Widzew Łódź | Poland Cup | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-08 | GKS Katowice | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Widzew Łódź | GKS Katowice | Ekstraklasa | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 25.6%, away 30.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.64 | 3.06 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.07 | 3.64 | 3.04 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 3.73 | 3.18 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .