Jagiellonia
vs
GKS Katowice
Garuda Lions Prediction: Jagiellonia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.31.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Jagiellonia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice
| Probability | Jagiellonia | Draw | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.0% | 24.4% | 25.6% |
| Market | 42.9% | 25.0% | 32.2% |
| Final | 44.6% | 24.8% | 30.5% |
| Edge | +1.8% | -0.1% | -1.6% |
Why Jagiellonia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.31.
Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.9% per unit staked (our 44.6% × 2.22 − 1).
Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice match preview
Jagiellonia is set to face GKS Katowice in an Ekstraklasa match on November 8, 2026. According to our model, Jagiellonia has a 55% probability of winning, while both a draw and a GKS Katowice victory are each at 22%. The expected goals for Jagiellonia are 2.15, compared to GKS Katowice's 1.33. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Jagiellonia, with a 9% chance of occurring.
In terms of recent form, Jagiellonia has recorded two wins followed by two losses and then another win, while GKS Katowice has a mixed record with two wins and four losses in their last six matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 67%, and both teams scoring is projected at 66%. The head-to-head results from the last three encounters show one win for Jagiellonia, one draw, and one win for GKS Katowice.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice attack and defence ratings
Jagiellonia
GKS Katowice
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock — team news & stats
- Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow — team news & stats
- Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats
- Slask Wroclaw v Piast Gliwice — match page
- Gornik Zabrze v Wieczysta Kraków — match page
- Widzew Łódź v Pogon Szczecin — match page
- Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa
- Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
Before and after this match
Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 44.6% | 2.24 | +1.8% | 2.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 44.6% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| GKS Katowice | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jagiellonia win | 28.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 50.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice stats
Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice recent form
| Jagiellonia |
LWWWLL |
| GKS Katowice |
WLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice season so far
Jagiellonia record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GKS Katowice record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | GKS Katowice | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 2-2 |
| 2026-03-17 | Jagiellonia | GKS Katowice | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-04 | GKS Katowice | Jagiellonia | Poland Cup | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.9%, draw 25.0%, away 32.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.72 | 2.86 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.70 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 3.85 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.72 | 2.84 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.91 | 2.95 |
| SBO | 2.02 | 3.42 | 2.77 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .