Lech Poznan
vs
Zaglebie Lubin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lech Poznan
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.26.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lech Poznan is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
| Probability | Lech Poznan | Draw | Zaglebie Lubin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.2% | 23.7% | 23.1% |
| Market | 64.1% | 20.3% | 15.6% |
| Final | 61.4% | 21.2% | 17.4% |
| Edge | -2.7% | +0.9% | +1.9% |
Why Lech Poznan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.26.
Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.1% per unit staked (our 61.4% × 1.48 − 1).
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin match preview
Lech Poznan holds a strong probability of winning at 65% against Zaglebie Lubin, who has a 15% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.42 for Lech Poznan and 1.12 for Zaglebie Lubin. Additionally, there is a 69% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored, and 62% for both teams to find the net.
In terms of recent form, Lech Poznan shows a mixed record with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Zaglebie Lubin, on the other hand, has a slightly better run with three wins, one draw, and one loss in the same timeframe. The head-to-head results from the last two encounters indicate an even split, with each team claiming one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lech Poznan and Zaglebie Lubin expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Lech Poznan and Zaglebie Lubin attack and defence ratings
Lech Poznan
Zaglebie Lubin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Slask Wroclaw v Piast Gliwice — match page
- Gornik Zabrze v Wieczysta Kraków — match page
- Widzew Łódź v Pogon Szczecin — match page
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Before and after this match
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 61.4% | 1.63 | -2.7% | 1.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 61.4% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 17.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% |
| No | 37.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win | 31.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 46.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin stats
Lech Poznan and Zaglebie Lubin recent form
| Lech Poznan |
LWLWDW |
| Zaglebie Lubin |
WDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lech Poznan and Zaglebie Lubin season so far
Lech Poznan record
- They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Zaglebie Lubin record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Zaglebie Lubin | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Lech Poznan | Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.1%, draw 20.3%, away 15.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 4.55 | 5.87 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.10 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.60 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.55 | 5.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.44 | 4.83 | 6.23 |
| SBO | 1.38 | 4.15 | 5.42 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .