Zaglebie Lubin
vs
Korona Kielce
Garuda Lions Prediction: Zaglebie Lubin
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.06.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce
| Probability | Zaglebie Lubin | Draw | Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.0% | 27.2% | 23.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.0% | 27.2% | 23.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Zaglebie Lubin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.06.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce match preview
Zaglebie Lubin is set to face Korona Kielce in their upcoming Ekstraklasa match, with the model indicating a 49% probability of a home victory, while a draw stands at 27% and an away win for Korona Kielce at 24%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring at a rate of 10%. Zaglebie Lubin has an expected goals figure of 1.61 compared to Korona Kielce's 1.06, suggesting a slight advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Zaglebie Lubin has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Korona Kielce has also shown inconsistency, winning three and losing three in the same timeframe. The model estimates a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce attack and defence ratings
Zaglebie Lubin
Korona Kielce
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
- Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice — match page
- Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow
- Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin — match page
- GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź — team news & stats
- Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin
- Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw — match page
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zaglebie Lubin | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zaglebie Lubin | 49.0% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Korona Kielce | 23.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% |
| No | 46.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Zaglebie Lubin win | 26.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 51.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce stats
Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce recent form
| Zaglebie Lubin |
DWLLWW |
| Korona Kielce |
WLLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce season so far
Zaglebie Lubin record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Korona Kielce record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Korona Kielce | Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-01 | Zaglebie Lubin | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.