Raków Częstochowa
vs
Pogon Szczecin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pogon Szczecin
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.26.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin
| Probability | Raków Częstochowa | Draw | Pogon Szczecin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.1% | 23.0% | 54.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 22.1% | 23.0% | 54.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Pogon Szczecin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin match preview
In the upcoming Ekstraklasa match, Raków Częstochowa faces Pogon Szczecin with kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Pogon Szczecin holds a significant advantage with a 55% probability of winning, compared to Raków Częstochowa's 22% and a 23% chance of a draw. The expected goals indicate a stronger offensive performance from Pogon Szczecin at 2.06, while Raków Częstochowa is projected to score 1.26.
Recent form shows Raków Częstochowa struggling with two wins in their last six matches, while Pogon Szczecin is on a strong run, having won five consecutive games followed by a draw. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-2 in favor of Pogon Szczecin, with a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.33
Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin attack and defence ratings
Raków Częstochowa
Pogon Szczecin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
- Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice — match page
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce — team news & stats
- Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow
- Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin — match page
- GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź — team news & stats
- Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw — match page
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogon Szczecin | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raków Częstochowa | 22.1% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Pogon Szczecin | 54.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% |
| No | 36.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogon Szczecin win | 33.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 45.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.6% |
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin stats
Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin recent form
| Raków Częstochowa |
LWLLLW |
| Pogon Szczecin |
WWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin season so far
Raków Częstochowa record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogon Szczecin record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Raków Częstochowa | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Pogon Szczecin | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.